Trading Journal

2017 August 22 Tuesday

North American Session Review and Strategy

Strongest, weakest, any trades taken? What reason to cancel a trade.

Asian Session Preview and Plan

Currencies of Interest COI and what trades to take if data is optimistic or pessimistic or as expected

2017 August 21 Monday

A quiet start to the week, bought some EUR for CAD and it worked out just before the CAD price jumped on the back of Oil geopolitical news.
No data in the asian session although plenty going off in European and North American sessions.

2017 August 16 Wednesday

Yesterday I took a risk in buying New Zealand Dollars which I perceived as being overbought, the risk paid off as the NZD index shot up 0.98% and I successfully took profit on both trades.

For tomorrow I am anticipating a weak Australian Dollar on the back of the labour data and a slightly optimistic Euro, again on the back of labour data. I have taken a buy on the EUR/AUD but will be watching the data on release to make sure this is a viable trade.

2017 August 15 Tuesday

Current sentiment has not presented a great opportunity to trade so I’m taking a small risk on buying New Zealand Dollars. The index was oversold today falling as far as 0.65% and not for any reason I can see. I have entered at current market conditions and bought against the US Dollar and then sold Euro’s in exchange for NZD.

2017 August 10 Thursday

The FX market took a risk off approach today and there is a possibility this could continue tomorrow. This gives me a chance to pick up some US Dollar longs at a great price. I am also looking to sell Pound however it is in for a disappointing day according to the forecast.

2017 August 8 Tuesday

The Canadian Dollar has a fundamentally strong outlook yet tomorrow the sentiment is expected to be pessimistic with the Housing Starts report. This should present an opportunity to enter the market and buy Canadian Dollars against the fundamentally weak outlook of the Pound.

2017 August 7 Monday

Tomorrow the AUD has an optimistic forecast yet nothing to sustain it throughout the week therefore this presents a great chance to enter what is perceived to be a fundamentally weak currency. The index looks overheated so a pullback overdue.

The USD has a pessimistic forecast and an undercooked index which is ready for a rebound. The inflation report is out on friday and looks to support an entry into the market tomorrow.

USD is Indifferent during Pessimistic times. SEET Jul 28. Optimistic Expected [Tradeable]

2017 July 27 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent based on data

Index improved by 0.55%, bouncing up from an oversold position in my view.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish and Short Term bearish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 28

GDP Growth Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 28

Advance GDP q/q

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Optimistic
  • Optimistic if above 2.0%
  • Pessimistic if below 1.5%

2017 July 26 Wednesday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Yellen didn’t give much away.

Index fell by 0.58%, seems oversold but could still run lower before reaching resistance.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 28

GDP Growth Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 27

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if above 0.4%
  • Pessimistic if below 0.1%

2017 July 24 Monday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Mixed data.

Index fell by 0.01%.

There is Political Risk with the ongoing Kushner, Russia meetings. Still unresolved.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 26

Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 25

CB Consumer Confidence

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS

2017 July 20 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Mixed data.

Index fell by 0.55%. Oversold in my opinion although Political Risk is high.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 26

Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 24

Existing Home Sales

  • Current Sentiment expected to be AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS

2017 July 11 Tuesday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic. A poor reading on the JOLTs report and a significant miss on expectations.

Index fell by 0.38%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 12

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 7 Friday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. A mix of data.

Index increased 0.03%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 11

JOLTS Job Openings

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 6.00
  • Pessimistic below 5.80

2017 July 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. A mix of data.

Index fell 0.40%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 7

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 7

Non-Farm Employment Change

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 180K
  • Pessimistic below 155K

Unemployment Rate

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic below 4.3%
  • Pessimistic above 4.4%

2017 July 5 Wednesday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. FOMC report was neither hawkish or dovish.

Index barely moved, gained 0.01%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 6 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 6

Balance of Trade

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above -45B
  • Pessimistic below -47B

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 56.9
  • Pessimistic below 56.1

 2017 Jul 3 Monday

Current Sentiment

Optimistic as ISM Manufacturing PMI above expectations.

Index today gained 0.62%

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 6 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 5

FOMC Meeting Minutes

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic when Hawkish
  • Pessimistic when Dovish

2017 June 29 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Core PCE was as expected but very low at 0.1%. Previous month revised down to 0.1%. Indifferent.

Short Term Dollar Index remains Bearish but appears to have bottomed out and recorded a small increase of 0.07%.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 2 GDP Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 3

ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 55.9
  • Pessimistic below 54.6

2017 June 29 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. GDP came in better than expected and Unemployment was about right.

Short Term Dollar Index remains Bearish and recorded new lows with a 0.5% drop.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 2 GDP Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 30

Core PCE Price Index m/m

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 0.1%
  • Pessimistic below 0.1%

 2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Pessimistic as the Pending Home Sales missed expectations coming in with -0.8%. The Short Term Dollar Index remains Bearish and recorded new lows.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate.

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30

Final GDP q/q

  • Sentiment expected to remain Pessimistic
  • Optimistic above 2.1%
  • Pessimistic below 1.0%

Unemployment Claims

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic below 230K
  • Pessimistic above 250K

 2017 June 27 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

Pessimistic

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 28 Wednesday 15:00 Pending Home Sales m/m

Today’s Sentiment

Optimistic above 1.5%

Pessimistic below 0.0%


2017 June 26 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

Core Durable Goods Orders have been a disappointment, missing expectations and coming in with a Pessimistic result however the Dollar Index is slightly up. Indifferent

General Sentiment

Dollar Index has been Long Term bearish since March and Short Term bearish since May. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 27 Tuesday 18:00 Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

General Sentiment

Optimistic when Hawkish

Pessimistic when Dovish


 2017 June 23 Friday

Today’s Sentiment

The New Home Sales were better than expected but not enough to lift the indifferent mood.

The DXY is down 0.24%.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 26 Monday 13:30 Core Durable Goods Orders

General Sentiment

Optimistic above 1.0

Pessimistic below 0.5


2017 June 22 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

The unemployment claims were mostly as expected so the general sentiment of indifference prevails.

The DXY is flat on the day.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 23 Friday 15:00 New Home Sales

General Sentiment Optimistic above 620K

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 570K


2017 June 21 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar is optimistic today with a good number on the Existing Home Sales release. Not enough to be considered overly optimistic but better than expected none the less.

The DXY is down on the day by -0.20% coming off a technical level rather than anything substantial.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 22 Thursday 13:30 is the Unemployment Claims

General Sentiment Optimistic below 235K

General Sentiment Pessimistic above 250K


2017 June 20 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar is optimistic today with a 0.25% increase on the DXY index. The Fed speakers generated little interest but traders are continuing to buy dollar.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 21 Wednesday 15:00 is the Existing Home Sales release.

Optimistic above 5.65M

Pessimistic below 5.50M


2017 June 19 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar is optimistic today with a 0.41% increase on the DXY index.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 20 Tuesday there are three FOMC members speaking. No reason for anything but Hawish however attention will be paid to Evans who is Dovish and Kaplan who is other.

Optimistic when Hawkish

Pessimistic when Dovish


2017 June 15 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar index is optmistic today and the S&P500 is too.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 15 Friday 13:30 for the Building Permits which is forecasted to maintain the bullish momentum.

Optimistic above 1.25

Pessimistic below 1.21


 2017 June 7 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar index is indifferent with Dollar index showing a small increase on the day’s open. The S&P 500 was down on the day.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent with a June price hike completely priced in.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 13 Tuesday 13:30 for the PPI m/m which is forecasted to fall to one of the lowest levels for a year.

Optimistic above 0.3

Pessimistic below 0.2


 2017 June 6 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

DXY pushing lower and S&P 500 coming off the highs, a pessimistic day for the dollar.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent with a June price hike completely priced in.

Sentiment Outlook

No upcoming changes expected to the fundamentals and nothing of note to be released this week that could cause an upset. Dollar looks to remain indifferent for the week.


2017 June 5 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

A flat day for the dollar with data coming out as expected or worse.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is neutral with a June price hike completely priced in.

Sentiment Outlook

No upcoming changes expected to the fundamentals and nothing of note to be released this week that could cause an upset. Dollar looks to remain neutral for the week.


2017 May 24 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar index lost almost all of the value it built up yesterday while the S&P500 achieved new highs. The FOMC minutes were hawkish towards a June hike but it appears that the political uncertainty prevails.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is pessimistic with this being driven by politics.

Sentiment Outlook

Unemployment claims are due out and appear to be an increase over previous month.


2017 May 23 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar has had a reasonable day and climbed 40 points whereas the S&P500 is almost no change.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is pessimistic with this being driven by politics.

Sentiment Outlook

The FOMC minutes are due out tomorrow and I am expecting to see further strength going in.


2017 March 6

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Factory Orders m/m 1.2% vs 1.1%

Talking Forex:

  • A familiar quiet trading session on Monday, with the market reining in some of the bullish USD sentiment over the March Fed rate hike which is now all but priced in.
  • Given that this still does not translate into any more than 3 Fed moves this year, UST yields have back into the middle of the 2017 range, so we are back to focusing on the data, with Friday’s jobs report pointing to more consolidation through the week.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 8
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 184K vs 246K

2017 March 5

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • Extended levels are part of the reason, but with the Trump administration ‘stalling’ on their fiscal spending plans, the reflation trade is naturally at risk.
  • Border adjustment tax looks to have been pushed down the pecking order, but interest in his speech tomorrow was focusing on income tax and corporate tax cuts, though this may have been tempered as officials stated that these will not be covered
    in his first budget address.
  • Note we saw limited movement – if any – in US Treasury yields.
  • US Q4 GDP (2nd reading) out tomorrow.
  • Not that this seems to be impacting in any negative way on the commodity currencies, but in the case of AUD and NZD, yield seekers continue to buy dips, and especially so in this current USD ambivalence.

Forexlive:

  • The US dollar finished the day near the lows despite more hawkish talk from Yellen and Fischer. Aside from saying ‘we’re going to hike on March 15,’ they couldn’t have been more explicit.
  • Yet the dollar is down around a half-cent across the board. Why? The market is ‘selling the fact’.
  • There was a rally in the dollar all week on Fed expectations rising and it was time to take profits on Friday afternoon.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Mon Mar 6
  • Factory Orders m/m 1.1% vs 1.3%

2017 February 27 Monday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.2% vs 0.5%
  • Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.8% vs 1.6%
  • Pending Home Sales m/m -2.8% vs 1.1%

Talking Forex:

  • Extended levels are part of the reason, but with the Trump administration ‘stalling’ on their fiscal spending plans, the reflation trade is naturally at risk.
  • Border adjustment tax looks to have been pushed down the pecking order, but interest in his speech tomorrow was focusing on income tax and corporate tax cuts, though this may have been tempered as officials stated that these will not be covered
    in his first budget address.
  • Note we saw limited movement – if any – in US Treasury yields.
  • US Q4 GDP (2nd reading) out tomorrow.
  • Not that this seems to be impacting in any negative way on the commodity currencies, but in the case of AUD and NZD, yield seekers continue to buy dips, and especially so in this current USD ambivalence.

Forexlive:

  • If you would have expected the US dollar to hit a speedbump on weak durable goods and Trump slowing down the timeline for a tax plan, you would have been right; at least for awhile.
  • But if you had predicted the US dollar would later dismiss all those concerns and rally to some of the best levels of the day, you would be sage.
  • That’s what happened Monday.
  • USD/JPY tested the Asian low of 111.93 on the series of disappointing headlines but a wave of bids materialized there to take the pair up to 112.82 in US afternoon trading.
  • The one thing the market liked was Trump talking major infrastructure spending.
  • That flies in the face of reports last week that he might delay infrastructure until 2018.
  • EUR/USD rose as high as 1.0630 in US afternoon trading only to give up nearly all the daily gains in a drop to 1.0580.
  • A big reason for the dollar bid was a rise in Treasury yields. Gundlach talked about a bond rally Friday but it didn’t come today. The idea is that Trump will disappoint but with the President instead seeming to pivot his speech toward Obamacare and the military, it doesn’t look like it will be the headline risk that was touted.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 28
  • Prelim GDP q/q 2.1% vs 1.9%
  • Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.1% vs 2.1%

2017 February 23 Thursday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • New Home Sales 555K vs 575K

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Mon Feb 27
  • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% vs 0.5%
  • Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.6% vs -0.5%
    Pending Home Sales m/m 1.1% vs 1.6%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 23 Thursday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Claims 244K vs 242K
  • Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M vs 3.4M

Talking Forex:

  • After an underwhelming Fed minutes last night, the USD was looking a little shaky this morning, with perhaps some hopes of Treasury Sec Mnuchin offering a little more insight on policy intentions.
  • He stated that the Border Adjustment Tax would be considered and saw 3.0% growth as achievable, but deflected questioning on currency manipulation.
  • This further disheartened USD bulls, but with the Fed rate profile for 2017 still fluctuating between 2 and 3 hikes, few expect a major breakout in the greenback either way, but we could 2-10yr yields move back towards the lower end of the recent range, especially as we move into March next week.
  • The run-up to the Fed meeting over the 14/15th will likely add to further USD
    repositioning.

Forexlive:

  • The market wants the goodies. The USD rally in the election aftermath was predicated on a long slate of promises around regulation, taxes and infrastructure spending.
  • What’s becoming increasingly clear is how tough it will be to deliver, even with full Republican control.
  • The US dollar slump came as the market connected the dots on a series of stories playing down hopes for 2017 growth, extending timelines for stimulus and edging towards partisan politics.
  • USD/JPY traded in a narrowing wedge around 113.20 in Asia and early Europe then finally broke to the downside on Mnuchin’s early comments. It continued down to 112.60 where it’s flatlined.
  • USD/CAD erased yesterday’s pop from poor Canadian retail sales. The pair sank on the rally in oil and general USD softness. It was a steady move down to 1.3085 from 1.3060.
  • EUR/USD finished up 20 pips at 1.0580 after climbing as high as 1.0595. The 1.06 level is now acting as resistance as the ebb and flow of European and US politics drives the see-saw.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Feb 24
  • New Home Sales 575K vs 536K

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes

Talking Forex:

  • Focus turns to Fed minutes; will Yellen match the hawkish tones from last week’s testimony?
  • Later on this evening, we may see some further pressure on the EUR/USD rate as the USD perspective is back on focus as traders turn to the Fed minutes. Specifically, the market will be looking for some asymmetry with the recent Yellen testimony, where the Fed chair’s tone was a little more hawkish than the Fed statement 3 weeks ago.
  • USD/JPY will be the focal point as the BoJ maintain their accommodative stance, and are happy to advocate this at every opportunity. The dip in UST yields pulled the USD rate below 113.00, but we ran into buyers here to settle back in the mid 113.00’s into the London close.

Forexlive:

  • The FOMC Minutes offered some hints that a rate hike is coming ‘fairly soon’ but that wasn’t enough for the market and the US dollar sold off in the aftermath of the report.
  • USD/JPY dropped to 113.00 from 113.60 after the release to erase what had been a slow rise throughout New York trade.
  • EUR/USD is set to finish at the highs of the day near 1.0570 after falling below 1.05 earlier to the worst levels since Jan 11. The euro was also boosted by Bayrou’s support of Macron as the French Presidential election looms large.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 23
  • Unemployment Claims 242K vs 239K
  • Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M vs 9.5M

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 19 Tuesday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • USD softness confounds after hawkish Fed and strong US data, but
    nervousness over Trump policy/disposition detracts.
  • Next week starts off on a quiet note, with the US observing the President’s day holiday on Monday.
  • We will also have the usual mix of Fed speakers, but despite this and the above data releases, we expect investor nervousness over Trump policy will continue to dictate sentiment away from the fundamental backdrop.
  • The past week has been clear evidence of this, with Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony alluding to a series of rate hikes through 2017, and putting March firmly on the table for the first move.
  • Adding to this has been some US strong data backing up the hawkish tone at the Fed, but USD buying was swiftly reversed on each occasion, with USD/JPY losses leading the way.
  • Reports of selling out of China alongside profit taking in equities hitting UST yields were cited as key drivers of the USD pull-back, but another uncomfortable press conference by president Trump highlights the uncertainty permeating through the market – and with Wall Street still pushing for new record highs.
  • Thursday’s North American session produced the first wobble, but the Dow once again managed to shake off the early jitters to record another all-time high.
  • EUR/USD based out ahead of 1.0500 in the early part of the week, and despite holding off 1.0700, finds support above 1.0600 which is fast developing as a near term value point.

Forexlive:

  • The US trading session was largely void of data. Yes there was US leading index It rose by 0.6% vs 0.5% est, but I cannot remember the last time that report mattered.
  • Pres. Trump spoke in SC at the Boeing plant there. He kept to the script. Talked about jobs and jobs and ended the campaign-esque rally with “God bless Amercia and God bless Boeing”.
  • Poor Lockhead. No love. No blessing.
  • What was clear was that after yesterday’s press conference diabolical, “Teflon Donald” bounced back.
  • The workers in the airport hangar were raucous, and you could see the bounce in Trump’s step.
  • He raced up the stairs of the new 787 to tour the plane. He may have even put an order in for a new one at the end of his term(s) (just kidding).
  • For the USD today, the dollar rose against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY. This was despite declines in yields.

Bloomberg:

  • Dollar Bulls Seek Fed Guidance While Riding Wave of Confusion
  • After a confusing week for dollar bulls, a closer look at some of the technical underpinnings of the greenback paints an even more mystifying outlook for the Trump reflation trade.
  • Popular analysis such as the Elliott Wave theory, which seeks to predict moves by dividing past trends into five sections, suggests the rally is sustainable in the short-term. Further out, the same measures raise questions.
  • According to the theory, created by Ralph Elliott in the 1930s, the daily charts show completion of wave 1 at 111.60 yen entering wave 2, a corrective wave which points to potential gains up to 115.96 before resuming wave 3, which will reinforce the dollar’s downtrend from mid-December.
  • While that may not convince non-believers in technical analysis, it’s no more confusing than the dollar’s reaction last week.
  • The greenback was little changed even after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s more hawkish tone bumped up bets on a March interest-rate hike, and a steeper-than-forecast increase in U.S. consumer prices signaled inflation in the world’s largest economy is right where the central bank wants it.
  • “As confidence in the dollar weakens with more articles and headlines like those in recent days and weeks, a tipping-point is on the horizon at which investors collectively realize they are at significant risk of being on the wrong side of a potentially large move,” Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of A.G. Bisset Associates, said in a recent note.
  • Investors counting on a continuation of the rally in U.S. equities and the dollar since Donald Trump’s presidential election now look toward Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s Feb. 1 policy meeting for a further catalyst while they wait for the administration to provide more details of its promised growth agenda.
  • Even with the optimism that has sent stocks to record highs, the dollar soaring and bond prices lower, expectations for those goals being met are more guarded.
  • Long-term charts suggest the greenback has a lot of room to fall. Mean reversion on 5-year charts show the dollar could fall toward 103.63 yen, its average closing price during that period after having held standard deviation resistance of 117.41.
  • When all is said and done, the Trump reflation trade lives on, but it just may be on life support.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Feb 22
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes

More Information from Forex Factory

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February 14 2017 Tuesday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • PPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.3% 0.3%
  • Core PPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.2%
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

Talking Forex:

  • Yellen warns against falling behind the curve
  • All eyes were on Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony statement whereby she stated that a hike is likely appropriate at one of its upcoming meetings, with the Chair also warning against waiting too long to remove accommodation.
  • This was met with a hawkish response with USD-index surging through 101.00 to hit a 3-week high, alongside a modest rise in yields.
  • USD/JPY saw a modest move above 114.00 with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the JanFeb drop at 114.27 a potential near-term resistance level ahead of 115.00.

Forexlive:

  • Yellen delivered on the volatility front.
  • She was constructive on rate hikes this year without giving anything away on the timing.
  • That was more than enough to send the US dollar 75-100 pips higher across the board.
  • USD/JPY was chopping in a tight range near 113.40 before the testimony hit at 10 am ET.
  • The move wasn’t a straight line but over an hour the pair rose a full cent. It finally ran into offers right at 114.50, which was the high of the day. It’s scaled back 25 pips late.

Bloomberg:

  • Yellen Sees More Rate Hikes Ahead If Economy Stays on Course
  • “At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate,”

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Feb 15
  • CPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.3%
  • Core CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%
  • Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.2%
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.1% vs 0.6%
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Sunday February 12 2017

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • Markets looking ahead to the Yellen testimony next week
  • EUR trying to break lower, but tough going near 1.0600
  • After what has been a relatively quiet week, we should see activity picking up in the USD pairings, with focus turning to Fed chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress and the Senate over Tuesday and Wednesday. This time last year, both houses were notably critical of the late 2015 rate hike, which was succeeded by the Jan-Feb fallout in Oil prices and the equity markets. We have come some way since then, but in similar fashion, the ‘aggressive’ dot plot has been adjusted down from 4 to 2 rate moves.
  • From a data perspective, US inflation alongside retail sales and industrial/manufacturing production are all due for release midweek, and could be just as instrumental in setting fresh direction for the greenback after this week’s modest gains.
  • The prompt for this week’s rise was largely on the speculative view on reports that president Trump will make an announcement on tax reforms over coming week’s, but with the major US indices showing no signs of pulling back, USD/JPY has turned tail to grapple with resistance levels stretching from 113.90-115.50.
  • EUR/USD though continues to press lower, but moves toward 1.0600 have been hard fought to say the least.

Forexlive:

  • Coming into the day, the focus on was on Abe and Trump.
  • The press conference briefly sent USD/JPY higher on positive sentiment and then Trump made some cryptic comments about currency devaluation and that sent the pair quickly to 112.80 from 113.36.
  • But the decline didn’t last long and the pair recovered to 113.50. Part of that USD strength was about the record high in stocks.
  • EUR/USD bottomed early in the day at 1.0610. That’s the worst since Jan 19. Despite some minor stops, the pair found support there and it recovered to 1.0650.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 14
  • PPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.3%
  • Core PPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%
  • Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Sunday February 5 2017

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3%
  • Non-Farm Employment Change 227K vs 170K
  • Unemployment Rate 4.8% vs 4.7%

Talking Forex:

  • Average earnings miss adds to recent USD softness, but 2 Fed rate hikes still
    priced in.
  • Politics to dictate next week.
  • The week after US payrolls is usually a quiet affair, with the data schedule much lighter than that seen over the last 5 days. That said, the risk overhang from President Trump and his daily verbiage on trade and immigration allied to that of the looming Brexit negotiations makes for ample reason to expect the volatility to continue.
  • Following on from Friday’s non farm payrolls, where average earning’s missed on
    expectations to provide the overwhelming USD direction, we continue to look to where the market values the USD in terms of what many expect will result in 2 Fed rate hikes rather than the 3.
  • This was the consensus after the Q4 growth stats released in the previous week, but we have seen the mid curve yields on the rise since, and these are now tailing off again to and pulling USD/JPY lower first and foremost.
  • EUR/USD may have come back off the near 1.0850 highs – topping out some 20 ticks or so ahead of this, but despite the overwhelming data differentials – as with the JPY – the greenback is struggling to build on gains against the single unit, and we cannot rule out a further short squeeze towards 1.0900-1.1000.

Forexlive:

  • The headline Non Farm payroll number showed a nice size gain of 227K vs 180K estimate and the greenback went initially higher.
  • Then the realization that the average hourly earnings were light at 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate (YoY was 2.5% vs 2.8% estimate) AND the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, sent the dollar back lower.
  • In the NY afternoon, Fed’s Williams in a Bloomberg interview, reminded traders (in less liquid markets) that the March meeting was still on the table and that the Fed – if it delayed tightening – could be chasing runaway inflation later. That helped to give the dollar a little more of a bid into the close. Once again though, it was not a runaway move.
  • Against the EUR, the EURUSD rose by about 0.20% on the day.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • FOMC Fails to Re-Fire the Dollar Drive; but the Attention is on Trump
  • Forecast for USD Next Week: Neutral
  • After gapping-lower to start the week, the Dollar’s bearish price action continued all the way into Wednesday, at which point a brief amount of support showed-up ahead of the Fed.
  • But this meeting did little to re-fire hopes for any near-term rate hikes as the bank made only slight modifications from their previous statement that was issued in December.
  • But what was perhaps most intriguing wasn’t what was in that statement: It’s what wasn’t there; and that’s acknowledgement of the continued improvement in U.S. data that’s shown-up on the back of hope around ‘Trumponomics’.
  • Deductively, this gives the appearance that the Fed isn’t making any huge plans for fiscal stimulus taking over economic growth anytime soon, nor was there any enhanced-need to look at tighter policy options in the near-term.
  • This led into Non-Farm Payrolls which, like Wednesday’s FOMC event, was rather muted. The headline print was a very positive +227k jobs added to American payrolls; but wage growth was lacking with a print of 2.5% (well-below the expectation for wage growth of 2.7%, annualized) while the unemployment rate increased to 4.8% (versus prior and expectation of 4.7%).
  • But what may be most relevant to U.S. Dollar price action throughout next week will likely be the same factor that’s stolen the world’s attention of recent, and that is President Donald Trump.
  • At this current juncture, it can be difficult to associate President Trump for anything but bearish connotations in the U.S. Dollar.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Feb 7
  • JOLTS Job Openings 5.56M vs 5.52M

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday February 2 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Claims 246K vs 251K

Talking Forex:

  • Further USD softening, but losses slowing and running into good support
    against EUR and JPY.
  • All eyes on the US non farm payrolls tomorrow, though we will need to see a significant beat on consensus (175k – average earnings +0.3%) in order to breath some fresh life into the greenback.

Forexlive:

  • …us dollar weakness have been the themes of the morning. Gold and oil firmer too.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% vs 0.4%
    Non-Farm Employment Change 170K vs 156K
    Unemployment Rate 4.7% vs 4.7%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 31 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • CB Consumer Confidence 111.8 vs 112.6

Talking Forex:

  • USD softening gathers pace after Trump accusations of calculated devaluation.
  • Month end flow was already shaping up to make Tuesday’s session a lively affair, but with president Trump firing off shots at China, Japan and Germany over currency ‘devaluations’, investor nervousness led to USD’s being offloaded at a rate of knots.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

  • Dollar Drops to Lowest Since November as Trump Rattles Markets
  • The greenback fell to a fresh low for the session, extending losses against all of its G-10 peers as the Bloomberg dollar index dropped to its lowest since mid-November, with the drop accelerating as President Trump claimed other countries devalue their currencies.
  • The decline may have been exacerbated by month-end flows from portfolio rebalancing.
  • The dollar was further undermined by a drop in the Treasury 10-yr yield, which fell to a fresh low for the day near 2.43%.
  • Foreign exchange flows were initially from fast money accounts adding to dollar shorts that have been rebuilt since the weekend, a trader in London said.
  • Selling was later seen from leveraged accounts unwinding stale longs, though not yet going short, another trader said.
  • The dollar slide began earlier in the day after Trump adviser Peter Navarro said the euro was “grossly undervalued.” Those remarks came after the Trump immigration order and the border wall spat with Mexico heightened U.S. businesses uncertainty, bolstering the view that the “Trump reflation trade” in FX seems to be running out of steam, traders have said.
  • The dollar has dropped almost 3% since the start of January after gaining as much as 7.1% post-election.
  • Real money players who were expected to build USD long positions in anticipation of a fiscal boost to the economy are still holding fire, said traders who asked not to be identified because not authorized to speak publicly.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Feb 01, FOMC Statement

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 30 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% vs 0.1%

Talking Forex:

  • Erratic month end flow, but USD softness clear, with perhaps more to come
    over Tuesday.
  • More erratic trade anticipated for Tuesday, and portfolio rebalancing points to more USD selling in the session ahead – notably against the GBP, AUD and NOK.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Jan 31 CB Consumer Confidence 112.6 vs 113.7

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 27 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Advance GDP q/q 1.9% vs 2.1%
  • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% vs 0.5%

Forexlive:

  • The US GDP for the 4Q came in weaker than expectations at 1.9% vs 2.2% estimates.
  • Personal consumption was up 2.5% QoQ which was as expected.
  • The GDP price index was up 2.1% as per expectations.
  • The US durable goods for December were not all that great either. The headline fell by -0.4% vs an expected gain of 2.5%. The other breakdowns of the data was not as bad. As a result, the markets took the headline fall in stride.
  • Later in the morning the Michigan Sentiment index rose to 98.5 from 98.1. That was good enough for a 13 year high as consumers continue to show confidence in the aftermath of the Trump election.
  • Stocks did pretty well this week with the Dow moving up over 20K. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at record highs during the week as the first week of President Trump was at times tumultuous and at other times a breathe of fresh air from the staid “establishment” Theresa May and the UK suddenly have another country who has to work out bilateral agreements with other countries. It won’t be all that bad.

Talking Forex:

  • It has been a tough week in FX, where traders have been deliberating on whether current levels in the USD represent value buy levels, given the clear rate differentials and the prospects of further widening. This was thrown into question again late Friday as the preliminary Q4 figures produced a softer than expected rate of growth, coming in at 1.9% where consensus was 2.2% and recent data reads prompting some to consider a possible overshoot. Add in the risk of ‘impulsive’ Trump rhetoric, and we have fresh considerations on whether renewing the USD bull trend with vigour is justifiable at this stage.
  • Longer term investors have more to think about. Looking to next week, the focus on the FOMC meeting will be on the accompanying statement, with the earliest calls for the next move is not until Q2 at the earliest.
  • Non farm payrolls at the end of the week should be of greater significance, when
    scrutinised alongside today’s data print.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% vs 0.0%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 25 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Crude Oil Inventories 2.8M vs 1.5M

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  •  USD bulls look to be keeping their powder dry for now, choosing to hold bids at key levels rather than chase the market higher as we saw earlier in the year

Bloomberg:

  • UBS Says Dollar to ‘Roll Over’ Amid Trump Spending, Tax Cuts
  • “At UBS we have a negative U.S. dollar view,” Gordon said in Singapore. “We believe the dollar has actually peaked. We think it rolls over here.” He added: “We hold that view because we see real interest rates going deeper into negative territory.” Negative real rates prevail when inflation is higher than nominal interest rates.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Unemployment Claims 247K vs 234K

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 24 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • USD Existing Home Sales 5.49M vs 5.54M

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • …we look some way off resuming the bull run perpetuated by UST yields. We look to have found some support in the 5yr above 1.75%, while the 10yr seems to have set a base at above 2.25%, but gaining traction from these levels all depends on how the Trump administration conduct domestic and trade policy measures from hereon out.
  • …gains have been languishing despite another run of healthy US stats in the form of manufacturing PMIs, though existing home sales proved a little disappointing – perhaps as a function of higher US rates.

Bloomberg:

  • The Dollar’s Trump Trade Approaches an Inflection Point
  • The currency has gained since the surprise election victory on speculation that Trump’s economic plans will spur growth and inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and make U.S. Treasuries more attractive to international buyers such as the Japanese. The rally stalled in recent weeks as investors grew impatient for more details.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Unemployment Claims 247K vs 234K

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 12 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar:

  • Bank Holiday

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX

Upcoming Event

  • CPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.2%
  • Core CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 12 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Claims 247K vs 266K

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • USD correction continues as Trump presser still fresh in the memory. USD dip
    buyers coming in though.
  • The aftermath of president elect Trump’s press conference continued as UST yields continued lower, but with Fed members underlining rate hike expectations (albeit mixed between 2-3 25bp hikes this year), there is a limit to just how low they (yields) can go. For this reason we see (and expect USD) dip buyers to step in

Bloomberg:

DailyFX

Upcoming Event

  • Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% vs 0.2%
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.5% vs 0.1%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 11 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar:

  • Crude Oil Inventories 4.1M vs 0.9M
  • President-Elect Trump Speaks

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX

Upcoming Event

  • Unemployment Claims 266K vs 235K
  • FOMC Member Evans Speaks
  • FOMC Member Harker Speaks

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% vs 0.3%
  • Non-Farm Employment Change 156K vs 175K
  • Unemployment Rate 4.7% vs 4.7%

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • President elect Trump is set to be inaugurated next week, ahead of which he
    has schedule a media press conference which is set to be ‘unscripted’. On this basis alone, we can expect to see some of the major pairings relinquishing gains, with USD/JPY already running into a wall ahead of 119.00 either side of the near year
  • USD longs cutting back a little ahead of US inauguration and Trump media press conference.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Tue Jan 10 JOLTS Job Openings 5.59M vs 5.53M

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 5 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 153K vs 171K
  • Unemployment Claims 235K vs 262K

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • Daily FX Wrap: USD finally records a significant reversal – JPY led, but EUR and CHF follow as dark cloud over NFPs.
  • Tuesday’s impulsive return to USD buying has been reversed and some, with USD/JPY leading the way after the return to the mid 118.00’s has been firmly rejected.
  • EUR/USD may have extended down to fresh multi year lows in the mid 1.0300’s this week, but tipping over 1.0600 again shows that extended USD moves require some consolidation.
  • We now await tomorrow’s US payrolls report, but in the non-manufacturing ISM index, we saw the employment component markedly lower to put a dark cloud over Friday’s release. Earning’s growth will be in focus, perhaps more so than the headline number unless we see a marked deviation from consensus.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • NFP Preview – Price Action Setups

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Fri Jan 6 Labour Report

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 3 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar: FOMC Meeting Minutes | Neutral

Forexlive: FOMC Minutes: Saw gradual rate hike pace appropriate for now

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg: Fed Officials See Gradual Rate Hikes as Upside Risks Debated | Neutral

DailyFX: FOMC Minutes Show Split on Inflation Outlook as Fiscal Policy Risk Increases

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Thu Jan 5 FOMC ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | Neutral Forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 2 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Tue Jan 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI | Neutral Forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday December 29

Recent Events | Strong

US Jobless Claims Fall Less Than Expected | Neutral

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Tue Jan 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI | No Forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday December 28

Recent Events | Strong

CB Consumer Confidence 113.7 vs 108.9 | Strong

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% forecast | Neutral

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Sunday December 18

Recent Events | Strong

Fed Raised Rates and indicated three hikes in 2017 | Strong

Housing Starts Fall From 9-Year High | Weak

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Existing Home Sales Wed Dec 21

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Wed Dec 22

|


Thursday December 15

Strong Recent Events

Strong Factory Activity Growth At 21-Month High: Markit
Strong Inflation Rate Rises To Fresh 2-Year High
Strong Jobless Claims Fall To 3-Week Low

More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Building Permits Fri Dec 16

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Wed Dec 21

|


Wednesday December 14

Strong Recent Events

Fed Raises Rates

More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Inflation, Unemployment on Thu Dec 15

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Building Permits on on Fri Dec 16.

|


Sunday December 11th

Strong Recent Events

Jobless Claims Decline From 5-Month High To 258K

More Information from Trading Economics

Strong Upcoming Event

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Fri Dec 9

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting on Wed Dec 14.

|


Friday December 9th

Hawkish as Jobless Claims Decline From 5-Month High To 258K

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased by 10 thousand to 258 thousand in the week ended December 3rd from the previous week’s unrevised level of 268 thousand and in line with market expectations. It was the 92nd straight week that claims were below 300 thousand, the longest stretch since 1970.

It was the 92nd straight week that claims were below 300 thousand, the longest stretch since 1970.

Information from Trading Economics

Next Significant Event

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Fri Dec 9.

Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

A forecast of 94.3 is higher than previous of 93.8.

Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting on Wed Dec 14.

|


Thursday December 8th

Unemployment claims came in at 258K as expected. Neutral day.

Next Significant Event

Federal Funds Rate on Wed Dec 14th

Hawkish going in as a hike is anticipated.

On the Horizon

Inflation on Thu Dec 15th.

|


Wednesday December 7th

No data of significance today.

Next Significant Event

Unemployment Claims on Thursday December 8th.

A forecast of 272K is a higher than previous so dovish going in.

On the Horizon

Consumer sentiment on Friday December 9th.

|


Wednesday November 30th

USD performed well following strong ADP Non-Farm Employment Change of 216K.

Next Significant Event

Unemployment Claims on Dec 1.

A forecast of 252K is flat so neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Labour data on Fri Dec 2nd.

|


Tuesday November 29th

Summary

USD performed well following release of some good data. GDP came in above expectations.

Next Significant Event

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday November 30th.

A forecast of 161K is really good and following on from good data today, strong going in.

On the Horizon

Unemployment Claims on Dec 1.

|


Sunday November 27th

Summary

No fundamental events today.

Next Significant Event

Preliminary GDP on Tuesday November 29th.

A forecast of 3.0 percent so strong going in.

On the Horizon

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday November 30th.

|


Friday November 18th

Fed speakers were all fairly neutral with little talk about monetary policy. Further details in the Fundamental Analysis.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 23rd has the FOMC Meeting minutes release.

In the run up to release the currency is strong as traders anticipate a December rate hike.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 29th is when Preliminary GDP is released for Q3.

|


Thursday November 17th

Today’s inflation data was a neutral release. Further details in the Fundamental Analysis.

Next Significant Event

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers. William Dudley is of most interest as a Dove.

In the run up to release the currency is neutral.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 23rd hsa Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims.

|


Wednesday November 16th

Today’s PPI data was very poor coming in at 0.0% against 0.3% forecast.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data. There is also a speech on the economic outlook  by Janet Yellen.

The data has a forecast of 0.4 percent and has only missed expectation once in the previous five although also only once has it beaten expectations.

In the run up to release the currency is Weak

On the Horizon

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers.

Tuesday November 15th

The retail sales data was very strong today and well above expectations. The headline figure was 0.8 percent against 0.6 percent expected. The core was at 0.8 percent against 0.5 percent expected.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labour Statistics release the Producer Price Index data.

The data has a forecast of 0.3 percent and has beaten forecasts three out of the last five releases.

In the run up to release the currency is Neutral-going-Strong

On the Horizon

Friday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data.

|


Wednesday November 10th

Summary

Dollar has held onto post election gains as investors feel confident now a single party hold the power in white house, senate and house.

The Department of Labor released the unemployment claims which came out lower than expected and this adding to the gains. The dollar has had a bullish couple of days.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Retail Sales data.

The data has no forecast yet but previously they were good. Until a forecast is out the outlook is neutral.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the PPI data.

Previously at 0.3 percent this was slightly above expectations.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Tuesday November 9th

Summary

Dollar plummeted in value although quickly recovered on the news that Trump is declared victorious in becoming the new president.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labor released the unemployment claims.

The expectation is that the claims will rise from 265K previously to 267K. Coupled with the Trump win, a weak dollar in the run up to release expected.

A higher than expected result will weaken further.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Core Retail Sales data.

Previously at 0.5% against a 0.4% forecast and this time with a 0.5% expectation this is a neutral outlook.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Monday November 7th

Summary

Dollar gained strength on the back of the polls favouring a Clinton win on the Presidential Elections.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 8th is the Presidential Elections.

It is not possible to trade going in as too much uncertainty with the result.

If Clinton wins the dollar is expected to be strong.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labour release the Unemployment Claims data.

Previously expectations were missed on the Employment Change so going into the event there may be some weakness. All depends on the forecast.

Once data is out, a lower than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Opinions and analysis presented here are my own views. Factual information and statistics were sourced from Wikipedia and Trading Economics.

EUR is Indifferent during Optimistic times. SEET Jul 31. AWAITING CONSENSUS

2017 Jul 27 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent on data release.

Index down by 0.49% showing a pull down from the ceiling I identified yesterday.

Currently no political risk

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish. Looking to make a support line soon.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 31

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above 1.0%
  • Pessimistic if below 0.9%

Unemployment Rate

  • Sentiment expected to be AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic below 9.2%
  • Pessimistic above 9.5%

2017 Jul 25 Tuesday

Current Sentiment

Optimistic

Index down by 0.06% perhaps the steam has finally run out and a ceiling has been found.

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 27

M3 Money Supply y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 5.1
  • Pessimistic if below 4.9

2017 Jul 24 Monday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent

Index down 0.12% due to a mix of data.

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 25

German Ifo Business Climate

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 115.1
  • Pessimistic if below 113.0

Flash Manufacturing PMI

  • Sentiment expected to be NO CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above NO CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if below NO CONSENSUS

2017 Jul 20 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent as nothing learned in the ECB conference. Rumours on tapering quashed.

Index today was up 0.98%. Unsure why and its highest level since Dec 2015

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 24

Flash Services PMI

  • Sentiment expected to be NO CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above NO CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if below NO CONSENSUS

Flash Manufacturing PMI

  • Sentiment expected to be NO CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above NO CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if below NO CONSENSUS

2017 Jul 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent with regards to Monetary Policy notes.

Index today was up 0.63%. Optimistic

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 18

Final CPI y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 1.4%
  • Pessimistic if below 1.2%

2017 Jul 3 Monday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent as Unemployment Rate at 9.3% as expected.

Index today was down 0.55%

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 6

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic when hawkish
  • Pessimistic when dovish

 2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent. M3 Money Supply came in as expected. EBC raised concerns that traders misunderstood Draghi to be Hawkish. Short term index created new highs.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index has been Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish since December 2016. Bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 1.0%
  • Pessimistic below 0.8%

 2017 June 26 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

Optimistic release on German IFO Business Climate

General Sentiment

Dollar Index has been Long Term bearish since 2014 but Short Term bullish Dec 2016. Indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 28 Wednesday 09:00 M3 Money Supply

General Sentiment Optimistic above 5.2%

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 4.7%

General Sentiment indifferent in between


 2017 June 23 Friday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent day with a mixed result on PMI’s The DAX is down 0.24%

General Sentiment

Indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 26 Monday 09:00 German IFO Business Climate

General Sentiment Optimistic above 115.0

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 110.0


 2017 June 22 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent day. The DAX is flat on the day.

General Sentiment

Indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 23 Friday 09:00 Flash Manufacturing PMI

General Sentiment Optimistic above 58

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 54

Flash Services PMI

General Sentiment Optimistic above 57

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 54


2017 June 15 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

An indifferent day although the DAX is down coming off recent highs.

General Sentiment

The Euro is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 16 Friday 10am for the Final CPI y/y which is forecasted at 1.4%. Optimistic above 1.9% Pessimistic below 1.2%


2017 June 8 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

No surprises in the ECB meeting press conference provided an indifferent day for the Euro.

General Sentiment

The Euro is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 13 Tuesday 10am for the ZEW Economic Sentiment which is forecasted to remain at the highest levels for a year. Optimistic above 22.0 Pessimistic below 17.0


2017 June 7 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

There was a leak to the press today on the upcoming ECB meeting tomorrow, it appears that they will reduce the forecast on inflation. This has introduced some pessimism although moves are marginal as traders remain sidelined until the press conference.

General Sentiment

The Euro is indifferent.

Sentiment Outlook

With the press release today, the outlook is expected to be pessimistic.


2017 June 6 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

A mostly indifferent day as traders await the ECB meeting press conference on Thursday.

General Sentiment

The Euro is cautiously optimistic.

Sentiment Outlook

Possibly optimism to continue throughout the ECB meeting this week.


2017 June 5 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

Nothing of note driving the Euro today although the Dax is sitting near the month high point.

General Sentiment

The Euro is cautiously optimistic.

Sentiment Outlook

Possibly optimism top continue throughout the ECB meeting this week.


2017 Match 07

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Revised GDP q/q 0.4% vs 0.4%

Talking Forex: Forexlive: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Mar 9
  • Minimum Bid Rate 0.00%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 Match 05

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar: Talking Forex:

  • Further into the week, the ECB previews will continue to focus on whether the governing council will come across less dovish (rather than hawkish), and whether they see any sustainable upward pressure on core CPI.

Forexlive: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

  • ECB on Euro’s Radar, Though French Election Remains Key Driver
  • Euro gained rapidly at the end of last week after French-German 10-year yield spreads tightened, thanks to the collapse of center-right candidate Francois Fillon’s campaign.
  • ECB meeting this coming week seems like nothing more than procedural – no changes expected to main rates or QE program; new staff forecasts due, however.
  • Retail positioning continues to indicate that EUR/JPY and EUR/USD could rally.
  • The Euro, despite being down for the majority of the week, finished out Friday on a very strong note, closing up against all of its major counterparts.
  • The brief interlude EUR/USD had below 1.0500 on Thursday was quickly negated by a significant development in the French election sage, which remains the key driver for all EUR-crosses.
  • EUR/USD finished up the week by +0.56%, while EUR/NZD, the best performing EUR-cross, finished up by +3.02%.
  • We’ve previously mentioned that the place to watch market stress around the French election is in the 10-year French-German yield spread.
  • After closing on February 24 at 74.2-bps, the spread collapsed into Friday, ending the week at 58.5-bps. The signal is clear: the fewer legitimate candidates in the field, the greater the chance that the National Front’s Marine Le Pen is defeated.
  • With more evidence gathering that center-right candidate Francois Fillon’s campaign was unraveling, it appears that the field is being cleared for a runoff between technocrat Emmanuel Macron and far-right populist Marine Le Pen.
  • In polls over the past month, Macron regularly leads Le Pen by a margin of 58-42 or 60-40.
  • Removing the tail risk of a ‘Frexit’ will surely be a shot in the arm for the Euro.
  • While Dutch elections are coming up on March 15, they’ve had little sway over the single currency.
  • Instead, while we watch French-German yield spreads as a gauge for market anxiety, we must not forget about the upcoming European Central Bank policy meeting this Thursday.
  • While the ECB will be released new staff economic projections (SEPs) due on Thursday, the scope for the ECB to act at this meeting, one way or the other, seems very limited.
  • To be fair, economic data has been improving steadily in recent weeks, beyond consensus expectations by a wide margin.
  • The Euro-Zone Citi Economic Surprise Index finished last week at +70.0, up from +55.9 a month earlier.
  • On the other hand, despite the German and Euro-Zone CPIs running through +2%, the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, one of President Draghi’s favorite measures of inflation, have slipped back the past month, finishing at 1.705% at the end of last week from 1.774% four-weeks ago.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to balance out his optimism over near-term economic data against longer-term concerns about the political scene in Europe and inflation that has just started to show signs of life near their medium-term target.
  • Similarly, it seems likely that he’ll downplay the ECB’s faith that inflation is returning in a meaningful way, so as to not spook markets into thinking that the ECB will be withdrawing liquidity at a faster than expected pace; the ECB’s ‘taper’ will still amount to over half-a-trillion worth of European sovereign debt purchased through the end of the year.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Mar, 07
  • Revised GDP q/q 0.4% vs 0.4%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Final CPI y/y 1.8% vs 1.8%
  • Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%

Talking Forex:

  • Le Pen gains in the polls sees fresh EUR selling, but Bayrou pulls out to offer some near term relief.
  • Much of the European session was taken up by the political concerns over Le Pen’s gains in the polls drawing more investors away from France and into the safety zone that is Germany.
  • Along with the healthy economic data coming out of Europe’s leading light, German paper has been in the spotlight of late, with this accelerating over the last 24-48 hours and pulling yields lower still.
  • 2Yr Schatz got to -0.92%, while the 10yr rate hit 0.25%. More significantly, the spreads with OAT’s have widened to levels last seen in 2012, accompanying a fresh exodus from the EUR which has seen the lead spot rate taking out 1.0500 – albeit briefly – while EUR/GBP has tested 0.8400 and EUR/JPY to below 119.00.
  • Late in the day however, we heard news that centrist Bayrou was to pull out of the race and back Macron to give the single unit some near term relief.

Forexlive: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

  • Euro zone inflation rose to an annual rate of 1.8 percent in January, in line with the first estimate.
  • The rise of annual inflation was mostly driven by energy prices which increased by 8.1 percent in January year-on-year, jumping from a 2.6 percent annualized increase in December.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Mar 2
  • CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.8% vs 1.8%
  • Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 February 21 Tuesday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 55.0
  • Flash Services PMI 55.6 vs 53.7

Talking Forex:

  • From a data perspective, EUR buyers will point to the better than expected Feb German PMIs, with the French services component also beating expectations to
  • see the EU composites also up on consensus.

Forexlive:

  • Political uncertainties continue to be the prime mover with European elections in the spotlight and this morning the euro has ignored good PMI flash data to head on a universal trip lower.

Bloomberg:

  • Euro-Area Economic Recovery Broadens as France Outpaces Germany
  • The euro area’s unexpectedly upbeat economic data on Tuesday might have come with more than one positive message.
  • A gauge for economic activity rose to the highest level in almost six years in February, following previous signals that the region’s frail recovery is finally taking shape.
  • National gauges showed France outpacing Germany for the first time since 2012 — a development that could signal growth in the 19-nation region is becoming more broad-based.
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has repeatedly argued that stimulus is still necessary to ensure the economic recovery becomes self-sustained and reaches beyond the region’s top performers.
  • Even though a swath of data — including inflation — has signaled that momentum may be stronger than expected, stoking calls for an exit from unconventional policy, the institution has committed to continue asset purchases until at least the end of the year amid political risks.
  • “The ECB will be cheered by the signs of stronger growth and further upturn in price pressures, though will no doubt remain concerned that elections and Brexit could disrupt the business environment this year,” Williamson said.
  • Reports published earlier in the day showed the French economy expanding by the most since 2011, propelled mainly by strength in its services sector. Output in Germany accelerated slightly less than in France, but still posted the strongest reading in three years.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Feb 22
  • Final CPI y/y 1.8% vs 1.8%
  • Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 February 19 Sunday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar: Talking Forex:

  • The EUR in the meantime continues to hold up well in the face of the potentially disruptive elections in Holland and France.
  • The ECB have been unequivocal in their continued narrative that policy will remain accommodative as long as core inflation remains subdued.
  • EUR/USD based out ahead of 1.0500 in the early part of the week, and despite holding off 1.0700, finds support above 1.0600 which is fast developing as a near term value point.

Forexlive:

  • EUR/USD has struggled to break below 1.06 lately but took it out on the Yellen headlines and sank to 1.0561.
  • The Jan 16 low was 1.0580 with the pair trading just below at the moment. Either way, losses in six of the past seven days are a negative sign.

Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 21
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.0 vs 55.2
  • Flash Services PMI 53.7 vs 53.7

More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday February 14 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Flash GDP q/q 0.4% vs 0.5%

Talking Forex: Forexlive:

  • EUR/USD has struggled to break below 1.06 lately but took it out on the Yellen headlines and sank to 1.0561.
  • The Jan 16 low was 1.0580 with the pair trading just below at the moment. Either way, losses in six of the past seven days are a negative sign.

Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 16
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday January 31 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.8% vs 1.5%
  • Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%
  • Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.5% vs 0.4%
  • Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs 9.8%

Talking Forex:

  • growth and inflation rates for Q4 also beat expectations by a modest amount – both up 1.8% yoy

Forexlive:

  • Eurozone Q4 GDP flash SA qq vs +0.5% as expected
  • December 2016 Eurozone unemployment rate 9.6% vs 9.8% exp
  • Check your charts for all the various moves but lots of euro-positive data eventually added to the usual month-end EURGBP demand and we’ve seen that pair up to 0.8635 from 0.8550 which has in turn helped lift EURUSD to 1.0725 after holding 1.0680.
  • European equities opened softer but then made gains before running out of steam with only the FTSE hanging in there as GBP pairs weakened.

Bloomberg: DailyFX:

  • Euro Pops Higher As Trump’s Trade Advisor Says It’s Grossly Undervalued
  • The Euro jumped against the currencies of its major rivals Tuesday after Peter Navarro, head of Donald Trump’s new National Trade Council, accused Germany of currency manipulation
  • The Euro gained a cent against the dollar and strengthened against other rivals too Tuesday after Peter Navarro, the head of Donald Trump’s new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times that Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” Euro to “exploit” the US and its EU partners.
  • In comments which the newspaper said are likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy, Navarro described the Euro as like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main trading partners.
  • His views, the FT added, suggest the new US administration is focusing on currency as part of its hard-charging approach on trade ties.
  • In response, EURUSD charged from below 1.07 to above 1.08 at one point, while EURGBP popped higher before easing back and EURJPY strengthened but then more than lost its gains.
  • However, there was some evidence that Navarro has a point in the day’s economic data. In Germany, unemployment fell by 26,000 in January, to a record low, and the jobless rate eased to 5.9% from 6.0%. By contrast, data from Italy showed the unemployment rate at 12% in December, stable compared with an upwardly revised rate for the month before, which was the highest since June 2015. Youth unemployment climbed to 40.1%, its highest level since June 2015, from a revised 40.0% in November.
  • The north/south divide in the Euro-Zone was also emphasised by news that Spanish inflation rose to 3% in January, its highest since December 2012. Figures released Monday showed inflation in Germany in the same month was just 1.9%, although that was the country’s highest inflation rate since July 2013.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 14 Flash GDP q/q

More Information from Forex Factory |


Wednesday January 25 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • German Ifo Business Climate 109.8 vs 111.3

Forexlive: Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Jan 31
  • CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • Prelim Flash GDP q/q
  • Unemployment Rate

More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday January 24 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 54.8
  • Flash Services PMI 53.6 vs 53.9

Forexlive: Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • German Ifo Business Climate 111.3 vs 111.0

More Information from Forex Factory |


Monday January 16 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar: Forexlive: Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Final CPI y/y 1.1% vs 1.1%
  • Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%
  • Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% vs 0.00%
  • ECB Press Conference

More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday January 12 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar: Forexlive:

Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Final CPI y/y 1.1%
  • Final Core CPI y/y

More Information from Forex Factory |


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Rate 9.8% vs 9.8%

Forexlive: Talking Forex:  Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Thu Jan 12 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday January 5

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar: Forexlive: Talking Forex:  Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event

German Retail Sales m/mFri Jan 6 More Information from Forex Factory |


Wednesday January 4

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar: CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Strong Forexlive: December 2016 Eurozone CPI flash 1.1% vs 1.0% exp y/y Talking Forex:  While emerging currencies such as MXN remain under pressure, the likes of EUR, GBP and JPY all saw gains through today’s session. Bloomberg:  DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Weak Forecast

German Retail Sales m/mFri Jan 6 | Weak More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday January 3

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar: Forexlive: relatively upbeat regional German CPI data which prompted an IFO economist to suggest that the ECB could need to curtail their loose monetary policy rate at a quicker rate than envisaged by current market consensus Talking Forex: Bloomberg: German Inflation Jumps to Fastest Since 2013 on Oil Prices DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Strong Forecast

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Wednesday January 4 More Information from Forex Factory |


Friday December 30

Recent Events | Unknown

EUR/USD jumps a big figure higher – thin liquidity a factor

Euro Jumps 1.6 Percent in Minutes as Algo Orders Surprise Market

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | No Forecast

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Wednesday January 4 More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday December 22th

Recent Events | Neutral

Germany December IFO business climate 111.0 vs 110.6 exp

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | No Forecast

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Wednesday January 4 More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday December 15th

Neutral Recent Events

Strong Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.9 vs 53.9 Weak Flash Services PMI 53.1 vs 53.9 More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Final CPI y/y on Fri Dec 16 More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Final Manufacturing PMI Tue Jan 3 |


Tuesday December 13th

Neutral Recent Events

Employment Change q/q 0.2 percent against 0.3 percent expected. More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

PMI’s on Thu Dec 15th. More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Final CPI y/y on Fri Dec 16. |


Sunday December 11th

Weak Recent Events

ECB Extends QE Until December 2017 More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Employment change on Tue Dec 13th More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

PMI’s on Thu Dec 15th. |


Thursday December 8th

The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the seventh straight time on December 8th, as widely expected, and extended its programme of quantitative easing until December 2017. Policymakers decided to continue its purchases under the asset purchase programme at the current monthly pace of €80 billion until the end of March 2017. From April 2017, the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary. Both the deposit rate and the lending rate were left unchanged at -0.4 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively.

Next Significant Event

Employment change on Tue Dec 13th.

Waiting on forecast.

On the Horizon

PMI’s on Thu Dev 15th.

|


Wednesday December 7th

Nothing of significance.

Next Significant Event

Interest Rate on Thursday December 8th.

A forecast of 00.0 percent is neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Employment change on Tuesday December 13th.

|


Wednesday November 30th

CPI data was exactly as expected. A neutral day.

Next Significant Event

Unemployment rate is released on Thursday December 1st.

A forecast of 10.0 percent is neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Unemployment rate is released on Thursday December 1st.

|


Sunday November 27th

Summary

No fundamental events today.

Next Significant Event

CPI Flash on Wednesday November 30th.

A forecast of 0.6% yoy is considered good although core is forecasted to remain at 0.8%. Neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Unemployment rate is released on Thursday December 1st.

|


Tuesday November 22nd

Summary

No fundamental events today.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 23rd when Manufacturing and Services PMI is released.

Both have a forecast similar to previous so a Neutral going in.

On the Horizon

German Ifo Business Climate is on Thursday 24th November.

|


Tuesday November 15th

Summary

The GDP had it’s second revision and came out as expected at 1.6 percent year on year.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th Eurostat release the Final CPI.

This was at 0.4 percent year on year previously which was as expected. Currency expected to be neutral going in.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Euro.

On the Horizon

ECB President Mario Draghi has a speech on Friday November 18th. This is neutral going in although the outcome is determined by his tone.

|


Wednesday November 9th

Summary

The Euro has gained in value as it was viewed as a safe haven while the US Presidential election played out.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th Destatis release the German Preliminary GDP and Eurostat release the Eurozone Flash GDP.

Going into the event, the currency is expected to be neutral.

If the reports are more hawkish than expected the Euro will show strength.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 17th Eurostat release the Final CPI.

This was at 0.4 percent year on year previously which was as expected. Currency expected to be neutral going in.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Euro.


Monday November 7th

Summary

An uneventful day.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 9th the European Commission release the EU Economic Forecasts.

It is not possible to trade going in as too much uncertainty with the result.

If the report is more hawkish than expected the Euro will show strength.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 15th is when Destatis release the Preliminary German GDP.

Previously expectations have been exceeded so if a good forecast strength going in is possible.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Euro.


Opinions and analysis presented here are my own views. Factual information and statistics were sourced from Wikipedia and Trading Economics.

AUD is Pessimistic during Optimistic times. SEET Aug 1. Expectation Indifferent

2017 July 26 Wednesday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic as the inflation data missed expectations.

Index is up 0.70% at time of writing. Traders buying it up for unfathomable reasons. Now looking overbought to me if traded against something optimistic.

General Sentiment

OptimisticAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bullish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Aug 1 Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Aug 1

Cash Rate and Rate Statement

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 20 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent as the data was as expected.

Index is up 0.53%

General Sentiment

OptimisticAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bullish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 26 Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 21

RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Optimistic as the trade balance came in way above expectations.

Index is down 0.25%. Indifferent

General Sentiment

IndifferentAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bearish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 15 Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 18

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 4 Tuesday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic as the central bank took an indifferent tone when traders were expecting it to be more hawkish.

No index while US on bank holiday but expected to be heavily down.

General Sentiment

IndifferentAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bearish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 6 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 6

Balance of Trade

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if above 1.6B
  • Pessimistic if below 0.5B

2017 July 3 Monday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic following a disappointing result on Building Approvals at -5.6%.

Index today was down 0.49%.

General Sentiment

IndifferentAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bearish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 4 Tuesday Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to change to Flat.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 4

RBA Rate Statement

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

 2017 June 20 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

Monetary policy minutes released, pessimistic / dovish as expected.

General Sentiment

Pessimistic

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 4 Tuesday Interest Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 3 Monday 02:30 Building Approvals.

Optimistic above 4.4%

Pessimistic below -5.5%


2017 June 19 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

AUD is pessimistic today after a couple of reports, Moodys downgraded the banks to AA3 an RBA Governer Lowe reported stagnation on income growth and it will be a problem for sometime.

General Sentiment

Pessimistic

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 20 Tuesday 02:30 the Monetary Policy minutes are released. Dovishness expected.

Optimistic if Hawkish

Pessimistic if Dovish


2017 June 15 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

Optimistic following excellent labour report.

General Sentiment

Indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 19 Monday 00:30 for a speech by RBA Gov Lowe

Optimistic when hawkish

Pessimistic when dovish


2017 June 8 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

The trade balance was unexpectedly low and put traders in a pessimistic mood.

General Sentiment

The AUD is Pessimistic.

Sentiment Outlook

Pessimistic.

 


2017 March 7

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Cash Rate 1.50% vs 1.50%

Forex Live:

  • I suppose the major event of the day was the Reserve Bank of Australia decision (0330GMT). I hesitate to call it a ‘risk event’ as there was very little doubt indeed as the cash rate outcome was all but a given, while with Governor Lowe speaking so often last week (speech, parliament appearance) the contents of the accompanying statement were not going to be too much of a mystery either.
  • RBA announce no change in cash rate – but check out the accompanying statement
    And, further thoughts:
  • Are the RBA too scared to do anything? Like a roo stuck in the headlights?
  • OK, on further reflection, yes the RBA was the major event today, cause I can’t think of much else that happened.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • Australian Dollar Sees Volatility, Little Commitment to Trend after RBA Hold
  • The Australian Dollar initially fell nearly a quarter of a percent following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
  • However, that drop would not last long with the market’s leveling out the drop as markets digested the event. Australian bond yields were little changed following the monetary policy meeting.
  • The RBA has kept the key interest rate at 1.50 percent since it was lowered to this level in August 2016 from 1.75 percent. Probabilities of an Interest rate hike (a shift from anticipation of further easing through as recently as 2016) increased roughly 2 percent points from 9 to 11 percent by September and 11 to 13 percent as of December of 2017.
  • Following the template for previous meetings, the RBA noted the strength of the Chinese economy during the second half of 2016, citing higher infrastructure spending.
  • The RBA stated that Australian economic growth was around two and a half percent in 2016, as exports and non-mining investment have risen over the year.
  • The RBA reiterated that the low level of interest rates has supported the outlook and the depreciation of the currency has assisted the economy during its transition away from the previous mining boom.
  • The RBA also restated that an appreciating Australian dollar would complicate the transition of the economy – a familiar trope for this and other trade-oriented regions.
  • Consumer and business confidence were notably at, or above average levels, although the RBA noted that household income continues run a slow pace. Labor costs continue to see a lack in growth, as the RBA sees inflation remaining low for some time. However, the bank does expect headline inflation to reach above the 2 percent lower threshold of its target range over the course of 2017.
  • The RBA’s monetary policy statement today was little changed from their February meeting, where they also left the cash rate unchanged.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Mar 16
  • Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 March 6

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Mon Mar 6 Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.4%

Forex Live:

  •  On the data front it was a light sort of session, with Australian retail sales improving on the month but weak wage income growth & caution from consumers resulting in relatively modest spending outcomes.
  • The monthly inflation report was a surprising drop.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia meet tomorrow (Tuesday Australian time) TD Australia outlook – “we expect the RBA Board tomorrow to remain neutral”

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Mar 7
  • Cash Rate 1.50% vs 1.50%
  • RBA Rate Statement

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 March 5

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forex Live:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Optimistic

  • Mon Mar 6
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs -0.1%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 24 Thursday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • Private Capital Expenditure q/q -2.1% vs -0.4%

Forex Live:

  • RBA Governor Lowe reiterated messages he and the Bank have been sending, most notably on monetary policy that further Australian rate cuts are well off the agenda for the time being.
  • On the Australian dollar Lowe was alos clear, with (to paraphrase but this is the gist):
  • Would like AUD to be lower, but find it hard to say A$ is overvalued. And, if commodity prices appreciate, would expect A$ to rise as well.
  • He has said those comments before on the $A (last week) and the comment related to commodity prices is non-controversial.
  • The Australian dollar remained unmoved through much of Lowe’s testimony (3 hours answering politicians questions … I hope someone bought him a drink when it was over), only dribbling a little lower along with other currencies against the USD as noted above.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 1
  • GDP q/q -0.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 23 Thursday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Private Capital Expenditure q/q -2.1% vs -0.4%

Talking Forex:

  • All of AUD, NZD and CAD also registering gains against the greenback, more so the NZD which has tested the resistance zone from 0.7240. This has been largely on the back of the reversal in AUD/NZD, driven by the drop in Q4 CAPEX (-2.1%) released in overnight trade.
  • This has not stopped AUD/USD pushing up to new cycle highs, tipping the 0.7740 level.

Forex Live:

  • News and data flow was light again in Asia today, with the focus on the Australian Q4 Private Capital Expenditure survey; aka the ‘capex’ survey, though if you stick an “r” in the right spot you’ll be close to the result.
  • It was a big miss on expectations (again), a further slump in mining capex (no surprise there) but at least a pickup in manufacturing and ‘other’ capex intentions to provide something positive.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 1
  • GDP q/q -0.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Construction Work Done q/q -0.2% vs 0.5%
  • Wage Price Index q/q 0.5% vs 0.5%

Talking Forex:

  • …however, AUD remains the outperformer near term, with a more relaxed RBA (on exchange rates) helping maintain the proxy commodity/risk trade.
  • The RBA minutes underlined the cautiously optimistic tone on global growth prospects.

Forex Live:

  • The day kicked off with a speech from Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, who offered up no simple, easy, popular solutions (he’ll leave that to the politicians) but did highlight some of the challenges facing the Australian economy and the RBA itself.
  • RBA Lowe: Some signs debt levels are affecting household spending
  • Australia – Construction Work Done for Q4: -0.2% q/q(expected +0.5%)
    … fell for the second quarter in a row
    … A big miss on expectations
    … On the more positive side, an increase in privately-funded activity is encouraging, suggesting that perhaps the country is past the peak drag from the mining sector ‘capex cliff’
    … Analysts suggest that the poor result from this today will not alter the forecast for a bounce back in Q4 GDP to a positive after the fall in Q3)
    Australia – Wage Price Index for Q4: +0.5% q/q (vs. expected +0.5%)
    … Wage growth is at a record low (since this data series commenced) and also around its weakest since the 1960s

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 23
  • Private Capital Expenditure q/q -0.4% vs -4.0%
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 21 Tuesday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • CB Leading Index m/m -0.1% vs 0.5%
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Talking Forex:

  • …however, AUD remains the outperformer near term, with a more relaxed RBA (on exchange rates) helping maintain the proxy commodity/risk trade.
  • The RBA minutes underlined the cautiously optimistic tone on global growth prospects.

Forex Live:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia minutes of the policy board meeting in February
  • Judged steady rates consistent with economic growth, inflation targets
  • Repeats an appreciating AUD would complicate economic transition
  • AUD had risen a little, supported by higher commodity prices
  • Uncertain on momentum in labour market, spare capacity to last for some time
  • Expected labour costs to build gradually, impact of competition on retail inflation to ease
  • Medium-term inflation expectations well anchored, inflation to rise gradually
  • Members noted downward pressure on inflation could be more persistent than assumed
  • Some indications wage growth had reached a trough
  • Resource exports to boost GDP growth, while drag from mining investment faded
  • Higher terms of trade provide upside risks to domestic economic forecasts
  • Board members more positive on near-term prospects for global economy
  • More confident that Chinese growth to stay resilient in 2017, still risks for medium term
  • Saw significant downside risks to global growth if Trump pursued restrictive US policies on trade, immigration
  • The minutes here reflecting the slightly more sanguine tone in the Statement after the meeting … upside risk to domestic eco forecasts … more positive on global economy … confident on China growth …
  • Sounds like the central bank equivalent of a raucous, drunken party.
  • Then a note on the risks posed by the new US admin. That’s like the grumpy old guy next door telling you to turn that music down!

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  •  Australian Dollar Falls as RBA Minutes See Lower Rates for Longer
  • The Australian Dollar weakened a quarter of a percent against the US Dollar following the release of minutes from February’s RBA monetary policy meeting, at which the central bank held rates at 1.50 percent.
  • The meeting took into consideration recent economic developments, such as a “considerably weaker” than expected 0.5 percent decline in GDP in the third quarter.
  • This disappointment was attributed to bad weather, coal supply disruptions and slower than expected growth in consumption.
  • Household consumption had been subdued according to the minutes, in line with tepid income growth. However, economic developments have not been entirely poor as retail sales volumes increased in the December quarter.
  • The fourth quarter of 2016 also saw Australia report a significant trade surplus driven by resource exports.
  • The RBA expected the drag on growth from falling mining investment to diminish.
  • The RBA noted that the depreciation of the exchange rate has assisted the economy in its transition “following the mining investment boom”.
  • Policymakers stated that an appreciating exchange rate would complicate this shift.
  • Inflation growth met expectations for the December quarter and forecasts were little changed. Medium-term inflation expectations remained “well anchored” as the committee anticipates a gradual rise in prices.
  • Taking into account domestic growth trends the RBA felt it would be appropriate to hold rates lower for longer to further support growth.Australian Dollar Falls as RBA Minutes See Lower Rates for Longer

Upcoming Events are Strong

  • Wed Feb 22
  • Construction Work Done q/q 0.5% vs -4.9%
  • Wage Price Index q/q 0.5% vs 0.4%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 19 Sunday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • …much of this has been based on the demand for base metals in China, to the benefit of the AUD in particular…

Forex Live:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 21
  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

More Information from Forex Factory

|


February 12 2017 Sunday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Talking Forex:

  • The RBA seem to be a little more relaxed on the currency, citing that it is hard to say whether the AUD is overvalued.

Forex Live:

  • The Australian dollar had a strong finish to the week with most of the rally coming in US trading.
  • The Aussie outperformed the loonie Friday despite the strong Canadian jobs report.
  • The 0.7700 has been tough to break for the Aussie in the past two weeks and the high was 0.7689 Friday.
  • Watch for another push early next week.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • Australian Dollar Could Stumble On Yellen Testimony
  • Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish
  • The Aussie Dollar has been unable to rise far despite a backdrop which should support it For AUD/USD at least, rate differentials still seem to rule.
  • That could make this a tricky week for bulls as Janet Yellen goes to Capitol Hill.
  • The Australian Dollar has just endured surprisingly torpid week.
  • It was full of potential market movers. We’ve had an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
  • Then came news that China’s trade surged in January with both exports and imports exploding beyond anything that the forecasters expected.
  • And the ostensibly Aussie-supportive news didn’t end there. Asian stocks hit 18-month highs, thanks to strong performances from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
  • This in turn was reportedly on hopes that China’s economy is now not merely stabilizing but strengthening, a point those trade data seem to have underlined in spades.
  • RBA Governor Phillip Lowe even said on February 9 that it was “hard to argue” that the Aussie was undervalued, given the central bank’s growth prognosis.
  • So why isn’t the currency higher?
  • Well, at least against the US Dollar, it’s plausible to argue that nothing which happened last week has fundamentally changed the relative interest-rate outlook for the two countries.
  • Right now, markets believe that Australian rates won’t rise for some time – even if they go no lower – while US rates are going up this year, possibly sharply.
  • The Federal Reserve has yet to adjust the central case it put in December which envisaged three quarter-percentage-point increases this year.
  • So, as we move into a new week, we have to ask whether anything will change that rate outlook? And the answer is “probably not” once again.
  • We might be able to look forward to some Aussie-supporting trans-Pacific bonhomie if Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe’s diplomacy-and-golf weekend with US President Donald Trump results in some trade-friendly communique.
  • Then there’s official Japanese growth data to look forward to (expected steady) and Chinese inflation numbers.
  • Closer to Aussie home we’ll also get a look at official unemployment figures.
  • However, the RBA wondered last week whether the economy could expand fast enough to meaningfully reduce joblessness from current levels in the short term.
  • That might take the edge off even a strong number.
  • But the big problem for the Aussie comes in the shape of one Janet Yellen.
  • The Fed Chair will give her semiannual testimony to members of the House of Representatives on Wednesday. If markets come away from that still convinced that those three hikes are coming – and it’s odds on that they will – then it may once again be hard for the Aussie to gain.
  • Be in no doubt. Australian Dollar bulls probably have much to look forward to in terms of better regional growth and a rosier future for global trade than the early days of the Trump presidency might have suggested.
  • But next week may be all about interest rates, and the “USD” side of AUD/USD. That could make progress tough.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 16
  • Employment Change 13.5K
  • Unemployment Rate 5.8%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday February 2 2017

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Building Approvals m/m -1.2% vs -1.7%
  • Trade Balance 3.51B vs 2.00B

Talking Forex:

  • In the commodity currencies, AUD was the standout gainer as the much higher than expected trade surplus saw the spot rate rip through 0.7600, taking out stops above 0.7625 to put in a tentative test on 0.7700.
  • NZD/USD has been dragged higher in its wake, largely due to the resistance in AUD/NZD above 1.0500.

Forex Live:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • Can Exports Keep Australia Recession-Proof?
  • … trade surpluses aren’t necessarily good, just as deficits aren’t necessarily bad. And there are a few clouds over this one.
  • It is the fruit of a big surge in export profits, as Australia’s top two commodity earners – coal and iron ore – rose in price
  • Australian Dollar Leaps on Record-High Trade Surplus
  • The numbers are not altogether good news for Australia’s economy because they’ve been generated by exports surging vastly ahead of imports. In December exports leaped by 5% compared to the month before, while imports rose a less-impressive 1%. This of course asks questions about Australia’s internal demand, questions which have already been posed by underwhelming consumer price and retail sales numbers.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Mon Feb 6 Retail Sales m/m

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 25 2017

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • CPI q/q 0.5% vs 0.7%
  • Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.4% vs 0.5%

Forexlive:

  • The (AUD) inflation data came in pretty much lower than expected for most measures;
  • More responses to the Australian CPI data (here’s one bank looking for 2 RBA cuts in 2017)
  • Since then AUD/USD has stabilised somewhat, but has shown little sign of a bounce as it straddles 0.7540 and thereabouts. This despite fresh bids entering the market now from 0.7530 down to the figure.

Talking Forex:

  • AUD seems to have recovered after the overnight hit on the back of the softer than expected inflation data – the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean figure slipped back from 1.7% to 1.6% on the yoy – as the spot rate managed to hold off 0.7500.

Bloomberg:

  • UBS Says Dollar to ‘Roll Over’ Amid Trump Spending, Tax Cuts
  • “At UBS we have a negative U.S. dollar view,” Gordon said in Singapore. “We believe the dollar has actually peaked. We think it rolls over here.” He added: “We hold that view because we see real interest rates going deeper into negative territory.” Negative real rates prevail when inflation is higher than nominal interest rates.

DailyFX:

  • Australian Dollar Slides Thanks to CPI Miss
  • Australian CPI inflation came in below expectations in the last three months of 2016
  • The Aussie Dollar duly slipped
  • It seems the markets think rates certainly won’t be rising anytime soon, even if they fall no further

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Feb 3
  • RBA Monetary Policy Statement

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Building Approvals m/m 7.0% vs 4.6%

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

  • AUD and NZD have been non-committal in today’s trade

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Tue Jan 10 Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 5 2017

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event

  • Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 4 2017

Recent Events | Weak

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: Aussie Dollar Focus Elsewhere as Chinese Consumers Perk Up | Weak

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6 | Strong forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 3 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: The Aussie narrowly outperformed, finding a bit of an added boost in an upbeat Caixin China PMI reading. The report suggested manufacturing-sector activity growth accelerated to the fastest rate since January 2013. Supportive news flow from China – Australia’s largest trading partner – often boosts the latter country’s currency as traders weigh positive spillover possibilities.

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6 | Strong forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 1 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

None

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Friday December 30

Recent Events | Neutral

Australia – Private Sector Credit (November): +0.5% m/m (expected +0.5%)

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday December 22

Recent Events | Weak

RBA Minutes: Rising AUD could complicate economic transition

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Trade Balance Friday January 6

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Building Approvals m/m Friday January 9

|


Thursday December 15

Neutral Recent Events

Jobless Rate at 3-Month High of 5.7% in November

More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Monetary policy meeting notes Tue Dec 20

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Cash Rate Tue Dec 6

|


Friday December 9th

Dovish as Australia Trade Deficit Widens in October

Australia reported a trade deficit of AUD 1.54 billion in October of 2016, an increase of 21 percent from an upwardly revised AUD 1.27 billion deficit in September. Figure came below market expectations of a AUD 0.80 billion gap, as exports rose less than imports.

information from Trading Economics

 

Next Significant Event

Labour data on Thursday December 15th.

No forecast yet

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting notes on Tuesday December 20th.

|


Wednesday December 7th

Interest rate was a muted affair with a hold of 1.50% and a slightly dovish press statement. The GDP missed expectations which soured the sentiment.

Next Significant Event

Labour data on Thursday December 15th.

No forecast yet

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting notes on Tuesday December 20th.

|


Thursday November 17th

Today’s labour results were overall Neutral-going-Week. See fundamental analysis for further details.

Next Significant Event

Private Capital Expenditure data is released on Thursday December 1st. This measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private business. Not tradeable going in unless a forecast is put out.

On the Horizon

Retail Sales are released on Friday December 2nd.

|


Tuesday November 15th

The RBA minutes were released and informative but neutral overall.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th is when the Australian Bureau of Statistics release the Employment change and Unemployment rate.

Unemployment has held steady at around 5.6 percent but the employment change has been fluctuating having missed expectations twice previous. There is a very high forecast of 20.3 thousand. Currency expected to be neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 22nd the Australia Treasury release the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. This is an annual report and not tradeable going in so neutral expected.

|


Monday November 7th

Summary

An uneventful day.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th is when the RBA release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

I expect the Australian Dollar to maintain strength in the run up to release.

Once the minutes are released, traders will take a few minutes to digest. If considered to be hawkish a stronger Australian Dollar will follow.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 17th is when the Australian Bureau of Statistics release the Employment change and Unemployment rate.

Previously expectations were missed on the Employment Change so going into the event there may be some weakness. All depends on the forecast.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Australian Dollar.

Canadian Dollar is Indifferent during Optimistic times. SEET Jul 28. Indifferent expected

2017 July 7 Friday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent.

Index improved by 0.35%

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY is Long Term bullish since May 2017 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Optimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

August 4

Unemployment Rate

  • Awaiting Consensus

Balance of Trade

  • Awaiting Consensus

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Jul 28

GDP m/m

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if above 0.3%
  • Pessimistic if below 0.1%

2017 July 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic following a poor Balance of Trade release.

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY is Long Term bullish since May 2017 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Optimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 7

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Jul 7

Unemployment Rate

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above
  • Pessimistic below

2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Pessimistic following a GDP m/m result of 0.2%.

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY is Long Term bullish since May 2017 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Optimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday 13:30 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday

Balance of Trade

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 0.0%
  • Pessimistic below -1.0%

 2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent following a non event from Poloz although the Index has jumped 1.2%

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since April 2016 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Indifferent.

  • Trying to Bullish after testing the long term Break Point

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday 13:30 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 13:30

GDP m/m

  • Sentiment expected to be Pessimistic
  • Optimistic above 0.4%
  • Pessimistic below 0.3%

2017 June 23 Friday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent following a less than expected reading on the Inflation Rate.

General Sentiment

Indifferent

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday 13:30 Balance of Trade

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 28 Wednesday 14:30 BOC GOV Poloz speaks

General Sentiment Optimistic when Hawkish

General Sentiment Pessimistic when Dovish


2017 March 8

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Housing Starts 210K vs 205K
  • Building Permits m/m 5.4% vs 3.1%
  • Labor Productivity q/q 0.4% vs 0.4%

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Mar 10
  • Employment Change 48.3K
  • Unemployment Rate 6.8%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 March 5

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Mar 7
  • Trade Balance 0.2B vs 0.9B

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • CPI m/m 0.9% vs 0.3%

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 1
  • BOC Rate Statement
  • Overnight Rate 0.50% vs 0.50%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Wed Feb 22
  • Core Retail Sales m/m -0.3% vs 0.8%
  • Retail Sales m/m -0.5% vs 0.1%

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

  • USD/CAD jumped after soft Canadian December retail sales. It was the worst report in 9 months and the pair kicked up to 1.3210 but technical resistance there in the form of the Feb high capped the move and it was a slow slide from there back to 1.3150 with most of it coming after the Fed minutes.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Feb 24
  • CPI m/m 0.3% vs -0.2%
  • Median CPI y/y 2.0%
  • Trimmed CPI y/y 1.6%
  • Core CPI m/m -0.1% vs -0.3%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 19 Sunday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • The CAD has been ushered out of the limelight in recent weeks, but supportive has been the latest series of domestic employment data alongside buoyant Oil prices, but the broader risk sentiment has also played a part in holding CAD on an even keel, with longer term interest factoring in the spillover effect from US growth.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Events are Strong

  • Wed Feb 22
  • Core Retail Sales m/m 0.8% vs 0.1%
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.1% vs 0.2%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 31 2017

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Employment Change 48.3K vs -10.1K
    Unemployment Rate 6.8% vs 6.9%

Talking Forex:

  • For the CAD, we come off the back another healthy jobs report, and with the EIA reporting increased compliance with the OPEC agreement on output cuts and lifting Oil prices again, a move on 1.3000 again may well be on the cards.
  • Many continue to look ahead to the tailwind affect of US economic growth, and this may well have been instrumental in containing the upside to pre 1.3400 levels.

Forexlive:

  • The early story was another blockbuster Canadian jobs report.
  • The strong numbers cut USD/CAD down to 1.3060 from 1.3140 in a quick move.
  • But the bottom came shortly after in the pair despite a strong day for oil and it slowly climbed back to 1.3090.
  • Despite the quick move, volatility in the latter half of the day was less than 30 pips.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Feb 15
  • Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.4% vs 1.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Employment Change 53.7K vs -5.1K
  • Trade Balance 0.5B vs -1.6B
  • Unemployment Rate 6.9% vs 6.9%

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  •  Jobs and trade figures of late have been on the encouraging side in Canada, so we are seeing some potential resilience developing here, as well as the potential impact of the cyclical tailwind effect from the upturn in US economic growth.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Weak

Tue Jan 10

  • Building Permits m/m 2.4% vs 8.7%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 5 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • RMPI m/m -2.0% vs -1.5%

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • Gains in the commodity currencies have been led by the CAD, with Oil prices
    largely the driver, and with both the API and DoE reports supportive of WTI, the spot move to sub 1.3200 translate into a near 4 cent drop from the highs.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Employment Change -5.1K vs 10.7K
Trade Balance -1.6B vs -1.1B
Unemployment Rate 6.9% vs 6.8%

More Information from Forex Factory

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Wednesday January 4 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: USDCAD was worst performer, more though to do with the USD than CAD.

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Weak

RMPI Thu Jan 5 the forecast is weak.

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Tuesday January 3 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Weak

RMPI Thu Jan 5

More Information from Forex Factory

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Monday January 2 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

None

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Weak

Labour data Fri Jan 6

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Tuesday December 27

Recent Events | Weak

GDP m/m Fri Dec 23 -0.3 percent vs 0.1 percent

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | No Forecast

Labour data Fri Jan 6

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Friday December 23

Recent Events | Weak

Canada Inflation Rate At 3-Month Low Of 1.2%

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Weak Forecast

GDP m/m Fri Dec 23

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Thursday December 15th

Weak Recent Events

Weak Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.8% vs 0.7%

More Information from Trading Economics

Strong Upcoming Event

CPI Thu Dec 22

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On the Horizon

GDP m/m Fri Dec 23

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Sunday December 11th

Neutral Recent Events

Canada Holds Overnight Rate At 0.5%

More Information from Trading Economics

Strong Upcoming Event

Manufacturing Sales on Thu Dec 15

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Wholesale Sales on Tue Dec 20

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Thursday December 8th

Yesterday’s interest rate was kept on hold at 0.50 percent and a neutral policy statement.

Next Significant Event

Manufacturing Sales on Thursday December 15th.

Waiting on forecast.

On the Horizon

Manufacturing sales on Thursday December 15th.

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Wednesday December 7th

There is an interest rate decision later today at 15:00.

Next Significant Event

Interest rate today Wednesday 7th December. The expected decision is a rate hold at 0.5 percent.

Sentiment is neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Manufacturing sales on Thursday December 15th.

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Wednesday November 30th

There was an OPEC meeting today where a deal was done on cutting oil prices. The Canadian Dollar is tightly correlated as they are an oil producing nation. To this effect, it did add strength to the Canadian Dollar as a production cut will increase the price of oil.

GDP also came in at 0.3 percent which is above expectations.

Subsequently it was a strong day for the Canadian Dollar.

Next Significant Event

Labour data on Friday 2nd December.

Employment change has a very small forecast increase of 0.1K which is considered weak.

Unemployment is forecast to remain at 7.0 percent.

Currency is considered weak going in although keep an eye on forecast.

On the Horizon

Interest rate decision on Wednesday December 7th.

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Tuesday November 29th

No data release today but there is now a forecast on GDP.

Next Significant Event

GDP on Wednesday November 30th.

0.1 percent mom forecast is considered weak going in.

On the Horizon

Labour data on December 2nd.

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Tuesday November 22nd

Retail Sales Headline 0.0 percent against 0.6 percent and Core 0.6 percent against  0.7 percent expected. A poor result which weakened the Canadian Dollar.

Next Significant Event

GDP on Wednesday November 30th. No forecast yet so neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Labour data on December 2nd.

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Friday November 18th

Next Significant Event

Retail Sales Data on Tuesday November 22nd.

A positive growth expected, previously has underperformed so expected to be neutral in the runup to release.

On the Horizon

GDP on Wednesday November 30th.

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Thursday November 17th

Today’s inflation data was a neutral release. Further details in the Fundamental Analysis.

Next Significant Event

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers. William Dudley is of most interest as a Dove.

In the run up to release the currency is neutral.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 23rd hsa Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims.

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Wednesday November 16th

Today’s PPI data was very poor coming in at 0.0% against 0.3% forecast.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data. There is also a speech on the economic outlook  by Janet Yellen.

The data has a forecast of 0.4 percent and has only missed expectation once in the previous five although also only once has it beaten expectations.

In the run up to release the currency is Weak

On the Horizon

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers.

Tuesday November 15th

The retail sales data was very strong today and well above expectations. The headline figure was 0.8 percent against 0.6 percent expected. The core was at 0.8 percent against 0.5 percent expected.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labour Statistics release the Producer Price Index data.

The data has a forecast of 0.3 percent and has beaten forecasts three out of the last five releases.

In the run up to release the currency is Neutral-going-Strong

On the Horizon

Friday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data.

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Wednesday November 10th

Summary

Dollar has held onto post election gains as investors feel confident now a single party hold the power in white house, senate and house.

The Department of Labor released the unemployment claims which came out lower than expected and this adding to the gains. The dollar has had a bullish couple of days.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Retail Sales data.

The data has no forecast yet but previously they were good. Until a forecast is out the outlook is neutral.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the PPI data.

Previously at 0.3 percent this was slightly above expectations.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Tuesday November 9th

Summary

Dollar plummeted in value although quickly recovered on the news that Trump is declared victorious in becoming the new president.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labor released the unemployment claims.

The expectation is that the claims will rise from 265K previously to 267K. Coupled with the Trump win, a weak dollar in the run up to release expected.

A higher than expected result will weaken further.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Core Retail Sales data.

Previously at 0.5% against a 0.4% forecast and this time with a 0.5% expectation this is a neutral outlook.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Monday November 7th

Summary

Dollar gained strength on the back of the polls favouring a Clinton win on the Presidential Elections.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 8th is the Presidential Elections.

It is not possible to trade going in as too much uncertainty with the result.

If Clinton wins the dollar is expected to be strong.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labour release the Unemployment Claims data.

Previously expectations were missed on the Employment Change so going into the event there may be some weakness. All depends on the forecast.

Once data is out, a lower than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Opinions and analysis presented here are my own views. Factual information and statistics were sourced from Wikipedia and Trading Economics.