2017 July 7 Friday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent.

Index improved by 0.35%

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY is Long Term bullish since May 2017 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Optimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

August 4

Unemployment Rate

  • Awaiting Consensus

Balance of Trade

  • Awaiting Consensus

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Jul 28

GDP m/m

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if above 0.3%
  • Pessimistic if below 0.1%

2017 July 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic following a poor Balance of Trade release.

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY is Long Term bullish since May 2017 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Optimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 7

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Jul 7

Unemployment Rate

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above
  • Pessimistic below

2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Pessimistic following a GDP m/m result of 0.2%.

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY is Long Term bullish since May 2017 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Optimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday 13:30 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday

Balance of Trade

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 0.0%
  • Pessimistic below -1.0%

 2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent following a non event from Poloz although the Index has jumped 1.2%

General Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since April 2016 and Short Term bullish since May 2017. Indifferent.

  • Trying to Bullish after testing the long term Break Point

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday 13:30 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 13:30

GDP m/m

  • Sentiment expected to be Pessimistic
  • Optimistic above 0.4%
  • Pessimistic below 0.3%

2017 June 23 Friday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent following a less than expected reading on the Inflation Rate.

General Sentiment

Indifferent

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Jul 6 Thursday 13:30 Balance of Trade

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 28 Wednesday 14:30 BOC GOV Poloz speaks

General Sentiment Optimistic when Hawkish

General Sentiment Pessimistic when Dovish


2017 March 8

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Housing Starts 210K vs 205K
  • Building Permits m/m 5.4% vs 3.1%
  • Labor Productivity q/q 0.4% vs 0.4%

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Mar 10
  • Employment Change 48.3K
  • Unemployment Rate 6.8%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 March 5

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Mar 7
  • Trade Balance 0.2B vs 0.9B

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • CPI m/m 0.9% vs 0.3%

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 1
  • BOC Rate Statement
  • Overnight Rate 0.50% vs 0.50%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Wed Feb 22
  • Core Retail Sales m/m -0.3% vs 0.8%
  • Retail Sales m/m -0.5% vs 0.1%

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

  • USD/CAD jumped after soft Canadian December retail sales. It was the worst report in 9 months and the pair kicked up to 1.3210 but technical resistance there in the form of the Feb high capped the move and it was a slow slide from there back to 1.3150 with most of it coming after the Fed minutes.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Feb 24
  • CPI m/m 0.3% vs -0.2%
  • Median CPI y/y 2.0%
  • Trimmed CPI y/y 1.6%
  • Core CPI m/m -0.1% vs -0.3%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 19 Sunday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • The CAD has been ushered out of the limelight in recent weeks, but supportive has been the latest series of domestic employment data alongside buoyant Oil prices, but the broader risk sentiment has also played a part in holding CAD on an even keel, with longer term interest factoring in the spillover effect from US growth.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Events are Strong

  • Wed Feb 22
  • Core Retail Sales m/m 0.8% vs 0.1%
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.1% vs 0.2%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 31 2017

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Employment Change 48.3K vs -10.1K
    Unemployment Rate 6.8% vs 6.9%

Talking Forex:

  • For the CAD, we come off the back another healthy jobs report, and with the EIA reporting increased compliance with the OPEC agreement on output cuts and lifting Oil prices again, a move on 1.3000 again may well be on the cards.
  • Many continue to look ahead to the tailwind affect of US economic growth, and this may well have been instrumental in containing the upside to pre 1.3400 levels.

Forexlive:

  • The early story was another blockbuster Canadian jobs report.
  • The strong numbers cut USD/CAD down to 1.3060 from 1.3140 in a quick move.
  • But the bottom came shortly after in the pair despite a strong day for oil and it slowly climbed back to 1.3090.
  • Despite the quick move, volatility in the latter half of the day was less than 30 pips.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Feb 15
  • Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.4% vs 1.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Employment Change 53.7K vs -5.1K
  • Trade Balance 0.5B vs -1.6B
  • Unemployment Rate 6.9% vs 6.9%

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  •  Jobs and trade figures of late have been on the encouraging side in Canada, so we are seeing some potential resilience developing here, as well as the potential impact of the cyclical tailwind effect from the upturn in US economic growth.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Weak

Tue Jan 10

  • Building Permits m/m 2.4% vs 8.7%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 5 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • RMPI m/m -2.0% vs -1.5%

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • Gains in the commodity currencies have been led by the CAD, with Oil prices
    largely the driver, and with both the API and DoE reports supportive of WTI, the spot move to sub 1.3200 translate into a near 4 cent drop from the highs.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Employment Change -5.1K vs 10.7K
Trade Balance -1.6B vs -1.1B
Unemployment Rate 6.9% vs 6.8%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 4 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: USDCAD was worst performer, more though to do with the USD than CAD.

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Weak

RMPI Thu Jan 5 the forecast is weak.

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 3 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: 

Upcoming Event | Weak

RMPI Thu Jan 5

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 2 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

None

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Weak

Labour data Fri Jan 6

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday December 27

Recent Events | Weak

GDP m/m Fri Dec 23 -0.3 percent vs 0.1 percent

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | No Forecast

Labour data Fri Jan 6

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Friday December 23

Recent Events | Weak

Canada Inflation Rate At 3-Month Low Of 1.2%

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Weak Forecast

GDP m/m Fri Dec 23

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday December 15th

Weak Recent Events

Weak Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.8% vs 0.7%

More Information from Trading Economics

Strong Upcoming Event

CPI Thu Dec 22

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

GDP m/m Fri Dec 23

|


Sunday December 11th

Neutral Recent Events

Canada Holds Overnight Rate At 0.5%

More Information from Trading Economics

Strong Upcoming Event

Manufacturing Sales on Thu Dec 15

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Wholesale Sales on Tue Dec 20

|


Thursday December 8th

Yesterday’s interest rate was kept on hold at 0.50 percent and a neutral policy statement.

Next Significant Event

Manufacturing Sales on Thursday December 15th.

Waiting on forecast.

On the Horizon

Manufacturing sales on Thursday December 15th.

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Wednesday December 7th

There is an interest rate decision later today at 15:00.

Next Significant Event

Interest rate today Wednesday 7th December. The expected decision is a rate hold at 0.5 percent.

Sentiment is neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Manufacturing sales on Thursday December 15th.

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Wednesday November 30th

There was an OPEC meeting today where a deal was done on cutting oil prices. The Canadian Dollar is tightly correlated as they are an oil producing nation. To this effect, it did add strength to the Canadian Dollar as a production cut will increase the price of oil.

GDP also came in at 0.3 percent which is above expectations.

Subsequently it was a strong day for the Canadian Dollar.

Next Significant Event

Labour data on Friday 2nd December.

Employment change has a very small forecast increase of 0.1K which is considered weak.

Unemployment is forecast to remain at 7.0 percent.

Currency is considered weak going in although keep an eye on forecast.

On the Horizon

Interest rate decision on Wednesday December 7th.

|


Tuesday November 29th

No data release today but there is now a forecast on GDP.

Next Significant Event

GDP on Wednesday November 30th.

0.1 percent mom forecast is considered weak going in.

On the Horizon

Labour data on December 2nd.

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Tuesday November 22nd

Retail Sales Headline 0.0 percent against 0.6 percent and Core 0.6 percent against  0.7 percent expected. A poor result which weakened the Canadian Dollar.

Next Significant Event

GDP on Wednesday November 30th. No forecast yet so neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Labour data on December 2nd.

|


Friday November 18th

Next Significant Event

Retail Sales Data on Tuesday November 22nd.

A positive growth expected, previously has underperformed so expected to be neutral in the runup to release.

On the Horizon

GDP on Wednesday November 30th.

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Thursday November 17th

Today’s inflation data was a neutral release. Further details in the Fundamental Analysis.

Next Significant Event

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers. William Dudley is of most interest as a Dove.

In the run up to release the currency is neutral.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 23rd hsa Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims.

|


Wednesday November 16th

Today’s PPI data was very poor coming in at 0.0% against 0.3% forecast.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data. There is also a speech on the economic outlook  by Janet Yellen.

The data has a forecast of 0.4 percent and has only missed expectation once in the previous five although also only once has it beaten expectations.

In the run up to release the currency is Weak

On the Horizon

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers.

Tuesday November 15th

The retail sales data was very strong today and well above expectations. The headline figure was 0.8 percent against 0.6 percent expected. The core was at 0.8 percent against 0.5 percent expected.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labour Statistics release the Producer Price Index data.

The data has a forecast of 0.3 percent and has beaten forecasts three out of the last five releases.

In the run up to release the currency is Neutral-going-Strong

On the Horizon

Friday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data.

|


Wednesday November 10th

Summary

Dollar has held onto post election gains as investors feel confident now a single party hold the power in white house, senate and house.

The Department of Labor released the unemployment claims which came out lower than expected and this adding to the gains. The dollar has had a bullish couple of days.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Retail Sales data.

The data has no forecast yet but previously they were good. Until a forecast is out the outlook is neutral.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the PPI data.

Previously at 0.3 percent this was slightly above expectations.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Tuesday November 9th

Summary

Dollar plummeted in value although quickly recovered on the news that Trump is declared victorious in becoming the new president.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labor released the unemployment claims.

The expectation is that the claims will rise from 265K previously to 267K. Coupled with the Trump win, a weak dollar in the run up to release expected.

A higher than expected result will weaken further.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Core Retail Sales data.

Previously at 0.5% against a 0.4% forecast and this time with a 0.5% expectation this is a neutral outlook.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Monday November 7th

Summary

Dollar gained strength on the back of the polls favouring a Clinton win on the Presidential Elections.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 8th is the Presidential Elections.

It is not possible to trade going in as too much uncertainty with the result.

If Clinton wins the dollar is expected to be strong.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labour release the Unemployment Claims data.

Previously expectations were missed on the Employment Change so going into the event there may be some weakness. All depends on the forecast.

Once data is out, a lower than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Opinions and analysis presented here are my own views. Factual information and statistics were sourced from Wikipedia and Trading Economics.