2017 July 26 Wednesday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic as the inflation data missed expectations.

Index is up 0.70% at time of writing. Traders buying it up for unfathomable reasons. Now looking overbought to me if traded against something optimistic.

General Sentiment

OptimisticAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bullish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

Aug 1 Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

Aug 1

Cash Rate and Rate Statement

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 20 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent as the data was as expected.

Index is up 0.53%

General Sentiment

OptimisticAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bullish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 26 Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 21

RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Optimistic as the trade balance came in way above expectations.

Index is down 0.25%. Indifferent

General Sentiment

IndifferentAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bearish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 15 Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 18

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 4 Tuesday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic as the central bank took an indifferent tone when traders were expecting it to be more hawkish.

No index while US on bank holiday but expected to be heavily down.

General Sentiment

IndifferentAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bearish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 6 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Worsening

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 6

Balance of Trade

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if above 1.6B
  • Pessimistic if below 0.5B

2017 July 3 Monday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic following a disappointing result on Building Approvals at -5.6%.

Index today was down 0.49%.

General Sentiment

IndifferentAustralian Dollar Index AXY is Long Term bearish and Short Term bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 4 Tuesday Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to change to Flat.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 4

RBA Rate Statement

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

 2017 June 20 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

Monetary policy minutes released, pessimistic / dovish as expected.

General Sentiment

Pessimistic

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 4 Tuesday Interest Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 3 Monday 02:30 Building Approvals.

Optimistic above 4.4%

Pessimistic below -5.5%


2017 June 19 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

AUD is pessimistic today after a couple of reports, Moodys downgraded the banks to AA3 an RBA Governer Lowe reported stagnation on income growth and it will be a problem for sometime.

General Sentiment

Pessimistic

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 20 Tuesday 02:30 the Monetary Policy minutes are released. Dovishness expected.

Optimistic if Hawkish

Pessimistic if Dovish


2017 June 15 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

Optimistic following excellent labour report.

General Sentiment

Indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 19 Monday 00:30 for a speech by RBA Gov Lowe

Optimistic when hawkish

Pessimistic when dovish


2017 June 8 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

The trade balance was unexpectedly low and put traders in a pessimistic mood.

General Sentiment

The AUD is Pessimistic.

Sentiment Outlook

Pessimistic.

 


2017 March 7

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Cash Rate 1.50% vs 1.50%

Forex Live:

  • I suppose the major event of the day was the Reserve Bank of Australia decision (0330GMT). I hesitate to call it a ‘risk event’ as there was very little doubt indeed as the cash rate outcome was all but a given, while with Governor Lowe speaking so often last week (speech, parliament appearance) the contents of the accompanying statement were not going to be too much of a mystery either.
  • RBA announce no change in cash rate – but check out the accompanying statement
    And, further thoughts:
  • Are the RBA too scared to do anything? Like a roo stuck in the headlights?
  • OK, on further reflection, yes the RBA was the major event today, cause I can’t think of much else that happened.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • Australian Dollar Sees Volatility, Little Commitment to Trend after RBA Hold
  • The Australian Dollar initially fell nearly a quarter of a percent following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
  • However, that drop would not last long with the market’s leveling out the drop as markets digested the event. Australian bond yields were little changed following the monetary policy meeting.
  • The RBA has kept the key interest rate at 1.50 percent since it was lowered to this level in August 2016 from 1.75 percent. Probabilities of an Interest rate hike (a shift from anticipation of further easing through as recently as 2016) increased roughly 2 percent points from 9 to 11 percent by September and 11 to 13 percent as of December of 2017.
  • Following the template for previous meetings, the RBA noted the strength of the Chinese economy during the second half of 2016, citing higher infrastructure spending.
  • The RBA stated that Australian economic growth was around two and a half percent in 2016, as exports and non-mining investment have risen over the year.
  • The RBA reiterated that the low level of interest rates has supported the outlook and the depreciation of the currency has assisted the economy during its transition away from the previous mining boom.
  • The RBA also restated that an appreciating Australian dollar would complicate the transition of the economy – a familiar trope for this and other trade-oriented regions.
  • Consumer and business confidence were notably at, or above average levels, although the RBA noted that household income continues run a slow pace. Labor costs continue to see a lack in growth, as the RBA sees inflation remaining low for some time. However, the bank does expect headline inflation to reach above the 2 percent lower threshold of its target range over the course of 2017.
  • The RBA’s monetary policy statement today was little changed from their February meeting, where they also left the cash rate unchanged.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Mar 16
  • Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 March 6

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Mon Mar 6 Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.4%

Forex Live:

  •  On the data front it was a light sort of session, with Australian retail sales improving on the month but weak wage income growth & caution from consumers resulting in relatively modest spending outcomes.
  • The monthly inflation report was a surprising drop.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia meet tomorrow (Tuesday Australian time) TD Australia outlook – “we expect the RBA Board tomorrow to remain neutral”

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Mar 7
  • Cash Rate 1.50% vs 1.50%
  • RBA Rate Statement

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 March 5

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forex Live:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Optimistic

  • Mon Mar 6
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs -0.1%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 24 Thursday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • Private Capital Expenditure q/q -2.1% vs -0.4%

Forex Live:

  • RBA Governor Lowe reiterated messages he and the Bank have been sending, most notably on monetary policy that further Australian rate cuts are well off the agenda for the time being.
  • On the Australian dollar Lowe was alos clear, with (to paraphrase but this is the gist):
  • Would like AUD to be lower, but find it hard to say A$ is overvalued. And, if commodity prices appreciate, would expect A$ to rise as well.
  • He has said those comments before on the $A (last week) and the comment related to commodity prices is non-controversial.
  • The Australian dollar remained unmoved through much of Lowe’s testimony (3 hours answering politicians questions … I hope someone bought him a drink when it was over), only dribbling a little lower along with other currencies against the USD as noted above.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 1
  • GDP q/q -0.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 23 Thursday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Private Capital Expenditure q/q -2.1% vs -0.4%

Talking Forex:

  • All of AUD, NZD and CAD also registering gains against the greenback, more so the NZD which has tested the resistance zone from 0.7240. This has been largely on the back of the reversal in AUD/NZD, driven by the drop in Q4 CAPEX (-2.1%) released in overnight trade.
  • This has not stopped AUD/USD pushing up to new cycle highs, tipping the 0.7740 level.

Forex Live:

  • News and data flow was light again in Asia today, with the focus on the Australian Q4 Private Capital Expenditure survey; aka the ‘capex’ survey, though if you stick an “r” in the right spot you’ll be close to the result.
  • It was a big miss on expectations (again), a further slump in mining capex (no surprise there) but at least a pickup in manufacturing and ‘other’ capex intentions to provide something positive.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 1
  • GDP q/q -0.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Construction Work Done q/q -0.2% vs 0.5%
  • Wage Price Index q/q 0.5% vs 0.5%

Talking Forex:

  • …however, AUD remains the outperformer near term, with a more relaxed RBA (on exchange rates) helping maintain the proxy commodity/risk trade.
  • The RBA minutes underlined the cautiously optimistic tone on global growth prospects.

Forex Live:

  • The day kicked off with a speech from Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, who offered up no simple, easy, popular solutions (he’ll leave that to the politicians) but did highlight some of the challenges facing the Australian economy and the RBA itself.
  • RBA Lowe: Some signs debt levels are affecting household spending
  • Australia – Construction Work Done for Q4: -0.2% q/q(expected +0.5%)
    … fell for the second quarter in a row
    … A big miss on expectations
    … On the more positive side, an increase in privately-funded activity is encouraging, suggesting that perhaps the country is past the peak drag from the mining sector ‘capex cliff’
    … Analysts suggest that the poor result from this today will not alter the forecast for a bounce back in Q4 GDP to a positive after the fall in Q3)
    Australia – Wage Price Index for Q4: +0.5% q/q (vs. expected +0.5%)
    … Wage growth is at a record low (since this data series commenced) and also around its weakest since the 1960s

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 23
  • Private Capital Expenditure q/q -0.4% vs -4.0%
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 21 Tuesday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • CB Leading Index m/m -0.1% vs 0.5%
  • RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Talking Forex:

  • …however, AUD remains the outperformer near term, with a more relaxed RBA (on exchange rates) helping maintain the proxy commodity/risk trade.
  • The RBA minutes underlined the cautiously optimistic tone on global growth prospects.

Forex Live:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia minutes of the policy board meeting in February
  • Judged steady rates consistent with economic growth, inflation targets
  • Repeats an appreciating AUD would complicate economic transition
  • AUD had risen a little, supported by higher commodity prices
  • Uncertain on momentum in labour market, spare capacity to last for some time
  • Expected labour costs to build gradually, impact of competition on retail inflation to ease
  • Medium-term inflation expectations well anchored, inflation to rise gradually
  • Members noted downward pressure on inflation could be more persistent than assumed
  • Some indications wage growth had reached a trough
  • Resource exports to boost GDP growth, while drag from mining investment faded
  • Higher terms of trade provide upside risks to domestic economic forecasts
  • Board members more positive on near-term prospects for global economy
  • More confident that Chinese growth to stay resilient in 2017, still risks for medium term
  • Saw significant downside risks to global growth if Trump pursued restrictive US policies on trade, immigration
  • The minutes here reflecting the slightly more sanguine tone in the Statement after the meeting … upside risk to domestic eco forecasts … more positive on global economy … confident on China growth …
  • Sounds like the central bank equivalent of a raucous, drunken party.
  • Then a note on the risks posed by the new US admin. That’s like the grumpy old guy next door telling you to turn that music down!

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  •  Australian Dollar Falls as RBA Minutes See Lower Rates for Longer
  • The Australian Dollar weakened a quarter of a percent against the US Dollar following the release of minutes from February’s RBA monetary policy meeting, at which the central bank held rates at 1.50 percent.
  • The meeting took into consideration recent economic developments, such as a “considerably weaker” than expected 0.5 percent decline in GDP in the third quarter.
  • This disappointment was attributed to bad weather, coal supply disruptions and slower than expected growth in consumption.
  • Household consumption had been subdued according to the minutes, in line with tepid income growth. However, economic developments have not been entirely poor as retail sales volumes increased in the December quarter.
  • The fourth quarter of 2016 also saw Australia report a significant trade surplus driven by resource exports.
  • The RBA expected the drag on growth from falling mining investment to diminish.
  • The RBA noted that the depreciation of the exchange rate has assisted the economy in its transition “following the mining investment boom”.
  • Policymakers stated that an appreciating exchange rate would complicate this shift.
  • Inflation growth met expectations for the December quarter and forecasts were little changed. Medium-term inflation expectations remained “well anchored” as the committee anticipates a gradual rise in prices.
  • Taking into account domestic growth trends the RBA felt it would be appropriate to hold rates lower for longer to further support growth.Australian Dollar Falls as RBA Minutes See Lower Rates for Longer

Upcoming Events are Strong

  • Wed Feb 22
  • Construction Work Done q/q 0.5% vs -4.9%
  • Wage Price Index q/q 0.5% vs 0.4%

More Information from Forex Factory

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2017 February 19 Sunday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • …much of this has been based on the demand for base metals in China, to the benefit of the AUD in particular…

Forex Live:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 21
  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

More Information from Forex Factory

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February 12 2017 Sunday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Talking Forex:

  • The RBA seem to be a little more relaxed on the currency, citing that it is hard to say whether the AUD is overvalued.

Forex Live:

  • The Australian dollar had a strong finish to the week with most of the rally coming in US trading.
  • The Aussie outperformed the loonie Friday despite the strong Canadian jobs report.
  • The 0.7700 has been tough to break for the Aussie in the past two weeks and the high was 0.7689 Friday.
  • Watch for another push early next week.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • Australian Dollar Could Stumble On Yellen Testimony
  • Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish
  • The Aussie Dollar has been unable to rise far despite a backdrop which should support it For AUD/USD at least, rate differentials still seem to rule.
  • That could make this a tricky week for bulls as Janet Yellen goes to Capitol Hill.
  • The Australian Dollar has just endured surprisingly torpid week.
  • It was full of potential market movers. We’ve had an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
  • Then came news that China’s trade surged in January with both exports and imports exploding beyond anything that the forecasters expected.
  • And the ostensibly Aussie-supportive news didn’t end there. Asian stocks hit 18-month highs, thanks to strong performances from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
  • This in turn was reportedly on hopes that China’s economy is now not merely stabilizing but strengthening, a point those trade data seem to have underlined in spades.
  • RBA Governor Phillip Lowe even said on February 9 that it was “hard to argue” that the Aussie was undervalued, given the central bank’s growth prognosis.
  • So why isn’t the currency higher?
  • Well, at least against the US Dollar, it’s plausible to argue that nothing which happened last week has fundamentally changed the relative interest-rate outlook for the two countries.
  • Right now, markets believe that Australian rates won’t rise for some time – even if they go no lower – while US rates are going up this year, possibly sharply.
  • The Federal Reserve has yet to adjust the central case it put in December which envisaged three quarter-percentage-point increases this year.
  • So, as we move into a new week, we have to ask whether anything will change that rate outlook? And the answer is “probably not” once again.
  • We might be able to look forward to some Aussie-supporting trans-Pacific bonhomie if Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe’s diplomacy-and-golf weekend with US President Donald Trump results in some trade-friendly communique.
  • Then there’s official Japanese growth data to look forward to (expected steady) and Chinese inflation numbers.
  • Closer to Aussie home we’ll also get a look at official unemployment figures.
  • However, the RBA wondered last week whether the economy could expand fast enough to meaningfully reduce joblessness from current levels in the short term.
  • That might take the edge off even a strong number.
  • But the big problem for the Aussie comes in the shape of one Janet Yellen.
  • The Fed Chair will give her semiannual testimony to members of the House of Representatives on Wednesday. If markets come away from that still convinced that those three hikes are coming – and it’s odds on that they will – then it may once again be hard for the Aussie to gain.
  • Be in no doubt. Australian Dollar bulls probably have much to look forward to in terms of better regional growth and a rosier future for global trade than the early days of the Trump presidency might have suggested.
  • But next week may be all about interest rates, and the “USD” side of AUD/USD. That could make progress tough.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 16
  • Employment Change 13.5K
  • Unemployment Rate 5.8%

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Thursday February 2 2017

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Building Approvals m/m -1.2% vs -1.7%
  • Trade Balance 3.51B vs 2.00B

Talking Forex:

  • In the commodity currencies, AUD was the standout gainer as the much higher than expected trade surplus saw the spot rate rip through 0.7600, taking out stops above 0.7625 to put in a tentative test on 0.7700.
  • NZD/USD has been dragged higher in its wake, largely due to the resistance in AUD/NZD above 1.0500.

Forex Live:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • Can Exports Keep Australia Recession-Proof?
  • … trade surpluses aren’t necessarily good, just as deficits aren’t necessarily bad. And there are a few clouds over this one.
  • It is the fruit of a big surge in export profits, as Australia’s top two commodity earners – coal and iron ore – rose in price
  • Australian Dollar Leaps on Record-High Trade Surplus
  • The numbers are not altogether good news for Australia’s economy because they’ve been generated by exports surging vastly ahead of imports. In December exports leaped by 5% compared to the month before, while imports rose a less-impressive 1%. This of course asks questions about Australia’s internal demand, questions which have already been posed by underwhelming consumer price and retail sales numbers.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Mon Feb 6 Retail Sales m/m

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Wednesday January 25 2017

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • CPI q/q 0.5% vs 0.7%
  • Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.4% vs 0.5%

Forexlive:

  • The (AUD) inflation data came in pretty much lower than expected for most measures;
  • More responses to the Australian CPI data (here’s one bank looking for 2 RBA cuts in 2017)
  • Since then AUD/USD has stabilised somewhat, but has shown little sign of a bounce as it straddles 0.7540 and thereabouts. This despite fresh bids entering the market now from 0.7530 down to the figure.

Talking Forex:

  • AUD seems to have recovered after the overnight hit on the back of the softer than expected inflation data – the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean figure slipped back from 1.7% to 1.6% on the yoy – as the spot rate managed to hold off 0.7500.

Bloomberg:

  • UBS Says Dollar to ‘Roll Over’ Amid Trump Spending, Tax Cuts
  • “At UBS we have a negative U.S. dollar view,” Gordon said in Singapore. “We believe the dollar has actually peaked. We think it rolls over here.” He added: “We hold that view because we see real interest rates going deeper into negative territory.” Negative real rates prevail when inflation is higher than nominal interest rates.

DailyFX:

  • Australian Dollar Slides Thanks to CPI Miss
  • Australian CPI inflation came in below expectations in the last three months of 2016
  • The Aussie Dollar duly slipped
  • It seems the markets think rates certainly won’t be rising anytime soon, even if they fall no further

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Feb 3
  • RBA Monetary Policy Statement

More Information from Forex Factory

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Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Building Approvals m/m 7.0% vs 4.6%

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

  • AUD and NZD have been non-committal in today’s trade

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Tue Jan 10 Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.5%

More Information from Forex Factory

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Thursday January 5 2017

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event

  • Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6

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Wednesday January 4 2017

Recent Events | Weak

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: Aussie Dollar Focus Elsewhere as Chinese Consumers Perk Up | Weak

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6 | Strong forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

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Tuesday January 3 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive: 

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX: The Aussie narrowly outperformed, finding a bit of an added boost in an upbeat Caixin China PMI reading. The report suggested manufacturing-sector activity growth accelerated to the fastest rate since January 2013. Supportive news flow from China – Australia’s largest trading partner – often boosts the latter country’s currency as traders weigh positive spillover possibilities.

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6 | Strong forecast

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Monday January 1 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

None

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6

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Friday December 30

Recent Events | Neutral

Australia – Private Sector Credit (November): +0.5% m/m (expected +0.5%)

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event

Trade Balance on Fri Jan 6

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Thursday December 22

Recent Events | Weak

RBA Minutes: Rising AUD could complicate economic transition

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Trade Balance Friday January 6

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Building Approvals m/m Friday January 9

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Thursday December 15

Neutral Recent Events

Jobless Rate at 3-Month High of 5.7% in November

More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Monetary policy meeting notes Tue Dec 20

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Cash Rate Tue Dec 6

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Friday December 9th

Dovish as Australia Trade Deficit Widens in October

Australia reported a trade deficit of AUD 1.54 billion in October of 2016, an increase of 21 percent from an upwardly revised AUD 1.27 billion deficit in September. Figure came below market expectations of a AUD 0.80 billion gap, as exports rose less than imports.

information from Trading Economics

 

Next Significant Event

Labour data on Thursday December 15th.

No forecast yet

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting notes on Tuesday December 20th.

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Wednesday December 7th

Interest rate was a muted affair with a hold of 1.50% and a slightly dovish press statement. The GDP missed expectations which soured the sentiment.

Next Significant Event

Labour data on Thursday December 15th.

No forecast yet

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting notes on Tuesday December 20th.

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Thursday November 17th

Today’s labour results were overall Neutral-going-Week. See fundamental analysis for further details.

Next Significant Event

Private Capital Expenditure data is released on Thursday December 1st. This measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private business. Not tradeable going in unless a forecast is put out.

On the Horizon

Retail Sales are released on Friday December 2nd.

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Tuesday November 15th

The RBA minutes were released and informative but neutral overall.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th is when the Australian Bureau of Statistics release the Employment change and Unemployment rate.

Unemployment has held steady at around 5.6 percent but the employment change has been fluctuating having missed expectations twice previous. There is a very high forecast of 20.3 thousand. Currency expected to be neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 22nd the Australia Treasury release the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. This is an annual report and not tradeable going in so neutral expected.

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Monday November 7th

Summary

An uneventful day.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th is when the RBA release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

I expect the Australian Dollar to maintain strength in the run up to release.

Once the minutes are released, traders will take a few minutes to digest. If considered to be hawkish a stronger Australian Dollar will follow.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 17th is when the Australian Bureau of Statistics release the Employment change and Unemployment rate.

Previously expectations were missed on the Employment Change so going into the event there may be some weakness. All depends on the forecast.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Australian Dollar.