2017 Jul 27 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent on data release.

Index down by 0.49% showing a pull down from the ceiling I identified yesterday.

Currently no political risk

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish. Looking to make a support line soon.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 31

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above 1.0%
  • Pessimistic if below 0.9%

Unemployment Rate

  • Sentiment expected to be AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic below 9.2%
  • Pessimistic above 9.5%

2017 Jul 25 Tuesday

Current Sentiment

Optimistic

Index down by 0.06% perhaps the steam has finally run out and a ceiling has been found.

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 27

M3 Money Supply y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 5.1
  • Pessimistic if below 4.9

2017 Jul 24 Monday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent

Index down 0.12% due to a mix of data.

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 25

German Ifo Business Climate

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 115.1
  • Pessimistic if below 113.0

Flash Manufacturing PMI

  • Sentiment expected to be NO CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above NO CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if below NO CONSENSUS

2017 Jul 20 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent as nothing learned in the ECB conference. Rumours on tapering quashed.

Index today was up 0.98%. Unsure why and its highest level since Dec 2015

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 31

Unemployment Rate

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 24

Flash Services PMI

  • Sentiment expected to be NO CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above NO CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if below NO CONSENSUS

Flash Manufacturing PMI

  • Sentiment expected to be NO CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic above NO CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if below NO CONSENSUS

2017 Jul 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent with regards to Monetary Policy notes.

Index today was up 0.63%. Optimistic

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 18

Final CPI y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 1.4%
  • Pessimistic if below 1.2%

2017 Jul 3 Monday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent as Unemployment Rate at 9.3% as expected.

Index today was down 0.55%

General Sentiment

Optimistic. Euro Index is Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 6

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic when hawkish
  • Pessimistic when dovish

 2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent. M3 Money Supply came in as expected. EBC raised concerns that traders misunderstood Draghi to be Hawkish. Short term index created new highs.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index has been Long Term bullish and Short Term Bullish since December 2016. Bullish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 1.0%
  • Pessimistic below 0.8%

 2017 June 26 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

Optimistic release on German IFO Business Climate

General Sentiment

Dollar Index has been Long Term bearish since 2014 but Short Term bullish Dec 2016. Indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 28 Wednesday 09:00 M3 Money Supply

General Sentiment Optimistic above 5.2%

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 4.7%

General Sentiment indifferent in between


 2017 June 23 Friday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent day with a mixed result on PMI’s The DAX is down 0.24%

General Sentiment

Indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 26 Monday 09:00 German IFO Business Climate

General Sentiment Optimistic above 115.0

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 110.0


 2017 June 22 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

Indifferent day. The DAX is flat on the day.

General Sentiment

Indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 30 Friday 10:00 Inflation Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 23 Friday 09:00 Flash Manufacturing PMI

General Sentiment Optimistic above 58

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 54

Flash Services PMI

General Sentiment Optimistic above 57

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 54


2017 June 15 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

An indifferent day although the DAX is down coming off recent highs.

General Sentiment

The Euro is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 16 Friday 10am for the Final CPI y/y which is forecasted at 1.4%. Optimistic above 1.9% Pessimistic below 1.2%


2017 June 8 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

No surprises in the ECB meeting press conference provided an indifferent day for the Euro.

General Sentiment

The Euro is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 13 Tuesday 10am for the ZEW Economic Sentiment which is forecasted to remain at the highest levels for a year. Optimistic above 22.0 Pessimistic below 17.0


2017 June 7 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

There was a leak to the press today on the upcoming ECB meeting tomorrow, it appears that they will reduce the forecast on inflation. This has introduced some pessimism although moves are marginal as traders remain sidelined until the press conference.

General Sentiment

The Euro is indifferent.

Sentiment Outlook

With the press release today, the outlook is expected to be pessimistic.


2017 June 6 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

A mostly indifferent day as traders await the ECB meeting press conference on Thursday.

General Sentiment

The Euro is cautiously optimistic.

Sentiment Outlook

Possibly optimism to continue throughout the ECB meeting this week.


2017 June 5 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

Nothing of note driving the Euro today although the Dax is sitting near the month high point.

General Sentiment

The Euro is cautiously optimistic.

Sentiment Outlook

Possibly optimism top continue throughout the ECB meeting this week.


2017 Match 07

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Revised GDP q/q 0.4% vs 0.4%

Talking Forex: Forexlive: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Mar 9
  • Minimum Bid Rate 0.00%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 Match 05

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar: Talking Forex:

  • Further into the week, the ECB previews will continue to focus on whether the governing council will come across less dovish (rather than hawkish), and whether they see any sustainable upward pressure on core CPI.

Forexlive: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

  • ECB on Euro’s Radar, Though French Election Remains Key Driver
  • Euro gained rapidly at the end of last week after French-German 10-year yield spreads tightened, thanks to the collapse of center-right candidate Francois Fillon’s campaign.
  • ECB meeting this coming week seems like nothing more than procedural – no changes expected to main rates or QE program; new staff forecasts due, however.
  • Retail positioning continues to indicate that EUR/JPY and EUR/USD could rally.
  • The Euro, despite being down for the majority of the week, finished out Friday on a very strong note, closing up against all of its major counterparts.
  • The brief interlude EUR/USD had below 1.0500 on Thursday was quickly negated by a significant development in the French election sage, which remains the key driver for all EUR-crosses.
  • EUR/USD finished up the week by +0.56%, while EUR/NZD, the best performing EUR-cross, finished up by +3.02%.
  • We’ve previously mentioned that the place to watch market stress around the French election is in the 10-year French-German yield spread.
  • After closing on February 24 at 74.2-bps, the spread collapsed into Friday, ending the week at 58.5-bps. The signal is clear: the fewer legitimate candidates in the field, the greater the chance that the National Front’s Marine Le Pen is defeated.
  • With more evidence gathering that center-right candidate Francois Fillon’s campaign was unraveling, it appears that the field is being cleared for a runoff between technocrat Emmanuel Macron and far-right populist Marine Le Pen.
  • In polls over the past month, Macron regularly leads Le Pen by a margin of 58-42 or 60-40.
  • Removing the tail risk of a ‘Frexit’ will surely be a shot in the arm for the Euro.
  • While Dutch elections are coming up on March 15, they’ve had little sway over the single currency.
  • Instead, while we watch French-German yield spreads as a gauge for market anxiety, we must not forget about the upcoming European Central Bank policy meeting this Thursday.
  • While the ECB will be released new staff economic projections (SEPs) due on Thursday, the scope for the ECB to act at this meeting, one way or the other, seems very limited.
  • To be fair, economic data has been improving steadily in recent weeks, beyond consensus expectations by a wide margin.
  • The Euro-Zone Citi Economic Surprise Index finished last week at +70.0, up from +55.9 a month earlier.
  • On the other hand, despite the German and Euro-Zone CPIs running through +2%, the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, one of President Draghi’s favorite measures of inflation, have slipped back the past month, finishing at 1.705% at the end of last week from 1.774% four-weeks ago.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to balance out his optimism over near-term economic data against longer-term concerns about the political scene in Europe and inflation that has just started to show signs of life near their medium-term target.
  • Similarly, it seems likely that he’ll downplay the ECB’s faith that inflation is returning in a meaningful way, so as to not spook markets into thinking that the ECB will be withdrawing liquidity at a faster than expected pace; the ECB’s ‘taper’ will still amount to over half-a-trillion worth of European sovereign debt purchased through the end of the year.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Mar, 07
  • Revised GDP q/q 0.4% vs 0.4%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Final CPI y/y 1.8% vs 1.8%
  • Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%

Talking Forex:

  • Le Pen gains in the polls sees fresh EUR selling, but Bayrou pulls out to offer some near term relief.
  • Much of the European session was taken up by the political concerns over Le Pen’s gains in the polls drawing more investors away from France and into the safety zone that is Germany.
  • Along with the healthy economic data coming out of Europe’s leading light, German paper has been in the spotlight of late, with this accelerating over the last 24-48 hours and pulling yields lower still.
  • 2Yr Schatz got to -0.92%, while the 10yr rate hit 0.25%. More significantly, the spreads with OAT’s have widened to levels last seen in 2012, accompanying a fresh exodus from the EUR which has seen the lead spot rate taking out 1.0500 – albeit briefly – while EUR/GBP has tested 0.8400 and EUR/JPY to below 119.00.
  • Late in the day however, we heard news that centrist Bayrou was to pull out of the race and back Macron to give the single unit some near term relief.

Forexlive: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

  • Euro zone inflation rose to an annual rate of 1.8 percent in January, in line with the first estimate.
  • The rise of annual inflation was mostly driven by energy prices which increased by 8.1 percent in January year-on-year, jumping from a 2.6 percent annualized increase in December.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Mar 2
  • CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.8% vs 1.8%
  • Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 February 21 Tuesday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 55.0
  • Flash Services PMI 55.6 vs 53.7

Talking Forex:

  • From a data perspective, EUR buyers will point to the better than expected Feb German PMIs, with the French services component also beating expectations to
  • see the EU composites also up on consensus.

Forexlive:

  • Political uncertainties continue to be the prime mover with European elections in the spotlight and this morning the euro has ignored good PMI flash data to head on a universal trip lower.

Bloomberg:

  • Euro-Area Economic Recovery Broadens as France Outpaces Germany
  • The euro area’s unexpectedly upbeat economic data on Tuesday might have come with more than one positive message.
  • A gauge for economic activity rose to the highest level in almost six years in February, following previous signals that the region’s frail recovery is finally taking shape.
  • National gauges showed France outpacing Germany for the first time since 2012 — a development that could signal growth in the 19-nation region is becoming more broad-based.
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has repeatedly argued that stimulus is still necessary to ensure the economic recovery becomes self-sustained and reaches beyond the region’s top performers.
  • Even though a swath of data — including inflation — has signaled that momentum may be stronger than expected, stoking calls for an exit from unconventional policy, the institution has committed to continue asset purchases until at least the end of the year amid political risks.
  • “The ECB will be cheered by the signs of stronger growth and further upturn in price pressures, though will no doubt remain concerned that elections and Brexit could disrupt the business environment this year,” Williamson said.
  • Reports published earlier in the day showed the French economy expanding by the most since 2011, propelled mainly by strength in its services sector. Output in Germany accelerated slightly less than in France, but still posted the strongest reading in three years.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Feb 22
  • Final CPI y/y 1.8% vs 1.8%
  • Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%

More Information from Forex Factory |


2017 February 19 Sunday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar: Talking Forex:

  • The EUR in the meantime continues to hold up well in the face of the potentially disruptive elections in Holland and France.
  • The ECB have been unequivocal in their continued narrative that policy will remain accommodative as long as core inflation remains subdued.
  • EUR/USD based out ahead of 1.0500 in the early part of the week, and despite holding off 1.0700, finds support above 1.0600 which is fast developing as a near term value point.

Forexlive:

  • EUR/USD has struggled to break below 1.06 lately but took it out on the Yellen headlines and sank to 1.0561.
  • The Jan 16 low was 1.0580 with the pair trading just below at the moment. Either way, losses in six of the past seven days are a negative sign.

Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 21
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.0 vs 55.2
  • Flash Services PMI 53.7 vs 53.7

More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday February 14 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Flash GDP q/q 0.4% vs 0.5%

Talking Forex: Forexlive:

  • EUR/USD has struggled to break below 1.06 lately but took it out on the Yellen headlines and sank to 1.0561.
  • The Jan 16 low was 1.0580 with the pair trading just below at the moment. Either way, losses in six of the past seven days are a negative sign.

Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 16
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday January 31 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.8% vs 1.5%
  • Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%
  • Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.5% vs 0.4%
  • Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs 9.8%

Talking Forex:

  • growth and inflation rates for Q4 also beat expectations by a modest amount – both up 1.8% yoy

Forexlive:

  • Eurozone Q4 GDP flash SA qq vs +0.5% as expected
  • December 2016 Eurozone unemployment rate 9.6% vs 9.8% exp
  • Check your charts for all the various moves but lots of euro-positive data eventually added to the usual month-end EURGBP demand and we’ve seen that pair up to 0.8635 from 0.8550 which has in turn helped lift EURUSD to 1.0725 after holding 1.0680.
  • European equities opened softer but then made gains before running out of steam with only the FTSE hanging in there as GBP pairs weakened.

Bloomberg: DailyFX:

  • Euro Pops Higher As Trump’s Trade Advisor Says It’s Grossly Undervalued
  • The Euro jumped against the currencies of its major rivals Tuesday after Peter Navarro, head of Donald Trump’s new National Trade Council, accused Germany of currency manipulation
  • The Euro gained a cent against the dollar and strengthened against other rivals too Tuesday after Peter Navarro, the head of Donald Trump’s new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times that Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” Euro to “exploit” the US and its EU partners.
  • In comments which the newspaper said are likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy, Navarro described the Euro as like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main trading partners.
  • His views, the FT added, suggest the new US administration is focusing on currency as part of its hard-charging approach on trade ties.
  • In response, EURUSD charged from below 1.07 to above 1.08 at one point, while EURGBP popped higher before easing back and EURJPY strengthened but then more than lost its gains.
  • However, there was some evidence that Navarro has a point in the day’s economic data. In Germany, unemployment fell by 26,000 in January, to a record low, and the jobless rate eased to 5.9% from 6.0%. By contrast, data from Italy showed the unemployment rate at 12% in December, stable compared with an upwardly revised rate for the month before, which was the highest since June 2015. Youth unemployment climbed to 40.1%, its highest level since June 2015, from a revised 40.0% in November.
  • The north/south divide in the Euro-Zone was also emphasised by news that Spanish inflation rose to 3% in January, its highest since December 2012. Figures released Monday showed inflation in Germany in the same month was just 1.9%, although that was the country’s highest inflation rate since July 2013.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 14 Flash GDP q/q

More Information from Forex Factory |


Wednesday January 25 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • German Ifo Business Climate 109.8 vs 111.3

Forexlive: Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Jan 31
  • CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • Prelim Flash GDP q/q
  • Unemployment Rate

More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday January 24 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 54.8
  • Flash Services PMI 53.6 vs 53.9

Forexlive: Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • German Ifo Business Climate 111.3 vs 111.0

More Information from Forex Factory |


Monday January 16 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar: Forexlive: Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Final CPI y/y 1.1% vs 1.1%
  • Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% vs 0.9%
  • Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% vs 0.00%
  • ECB Press Conference

More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday January 12 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar: Forexlive:

Talking Forex: Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Final CPI y/y 1.1%
  • Final Core CPI y/y

More Information from Forex Factory |


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Rate 9.8% vs 9.8%

Forexlive: Talking Forex:  Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Thu Jan 12 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday January 5

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar: Forexlive: Talking Forex:  Bloomberg: DailyFX:

Upcoming Event

German Retail Sales m/mFri Jan 6 More Information from Forex Factory |


Wednesday January 4

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar: CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Strong Forexlive: December 2016 Eurozone CPI flash 1.1% vs 1.0% exp y/y Talking Forex:  While emerging currencies such as MXN remain under pressure, the likes of EUR, GBP and JPY all saw gains through today’s session. Bloomberg:  DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Weak Forecast

German Retail Sales m/mFri Jan 6 | Weak More Information from Forex Factory |


Tuesday January 3

Recent Events | Strong

Economic Calendar: Forexlive: relatively upbeat regional German CPI data which prompted an IFO economist to suggest that the ECB could need to curtail their loose monetary policy rate at a quicker rate than envisaged by current market consensus Talking Forex: Bloomberg: German Inflation Jumps to Fastest Since 2013 on Oil Prices DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Strong Forecast

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Wednesday January 4 More Information from Forex Factory |


Friday December 30

Recent Events | Unknown

EUR/USD jumps a big figure higher – thin liquidity a factor

Euro Jumps 1.6 Percent in Minutes as Algo Orders Surprise Market

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | No Forecast

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Wednesday January 4 More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday December 22th

Recent Events | Neutral

Germany December IFO business climate 111.0 vs 110.6 exp

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | No Forecast

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Wednesday January 4 More Information from Forex Factory |


Thursday December 15th

Neutral Recent Events

Strong Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.9 vs 53.9 Weak Flash Services PMI 53.1 vs 53.9 More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Final CPI y/y on Fri Dec 16 More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Final Manufacturing PMI Tue Jan 3 |


Tuesday December 13th

Neutral Recent Events

Employment Change q/q 0.2 percent against 0.3 percent expected. More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

PMI’s on Thu Dec 15th. More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Final CPI y/y on Fri Dec 16. |


Sunday December 11th

Weak Recent Events

ECB Extends QE Until December 2017 More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Employment change on Tue Dec 13th More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

PMI’s on Thu Dec 15th. |


Thursday December 8th

The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent for the seventh straight time on December 8th, as widely expected, and extended its programme of quantitative easing until December 2017. Policymakers decided to continue its purchases under the asset purchase programme at the current monthly pace of €80 billion until the end of March 2017. From April 2017, the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary. Both the deposit rate and the lending rate were left unchanged at -0.4 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively.

Next Significant Event

Employment change on Tue Dec 13th.

Waiting on forecast.

On the Horizon

PMI’s on Thu Dev 15th.

|


Wednesday December 7th

Nothing of significance.

Next Significant Event

Interest Rate on Thursday December 8th.

A forecast of 00.0 percent is neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Employment change on Tuesday December 13th.

|


Wednesday November 30th

CPI data was exactly as expected. A neutral day.

Next Significant Event

Unemployment rate is released on Thursday December 1st.

A forecast of 10.0 percent is neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Unemployment rate is released on Thursday December 1st.

|


Sunday November 27th

Summary

No fundamental events today.

Next Significant Event

CPI Flash on Wednesday November 30th.

A forecast of 0.6% yoy is considered good although core is forecasted to remain at 0.8%. Neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Unemployment rate is released on Thursday December 1st.

|


Tuesday November 22nd

Summary

No fundamental events today.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 23rd when Manufacturing and Services PMI is released.

Both have a forecast similar to previous so a Neutral going in.

On the Horizon

German Ifo Business Climate is on Thursday 24th November.

|


Tuesday November 15th

Summary

The GDP had it’s second revision and came out as expected at 1.6 percent year on year.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th Eurostat release the Final CPI.

This was at 0.4 percent year on year previously which was as expected. Currency expected to be neutral going in.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Euro.

On the Horizon

ECB President Mario Draghi has a speech on Friday November 18th. This is neutral going in although the outcome is determined by his tone.

|


Wednesday November 9th

Summary

The Euro has gained in value as it was viewed as a safe haven while the US Presidential election played out.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th Destatis release the German Preliminary GDP and Eurostat release the Eurozone Flash GDP.

Going into the event, the currency is expected to be neutral.

If the reports are more hawkish than expected the Euro will show strength.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 17th Eurostat release the Final CPI.

This was at 0.4 percent year on year previously which was as expected. Currency expected to be neutral going in.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Euro.


Monday November 7th

Summary

An uneventful day.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 9th the European Commission release the EU Economic Forecasts.

It is not possible to trade going in as too much uncertainty with the result.

If the report is more hawkish than expected the Euro will show strength.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 15th is when Destatis release the Preliminary German GDP.

Previously expectations have been exceeded so if a good forecast strength going in is possible.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the Euro.


Opinions and analysis presented here are my own views. Factual information and statistics were sourced from Wikipedia and Trading Economics.