2017 July 27 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent based on data

Index improved by 0.55%, bouncing up from an oversold position in my view.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish and Short Term bearish.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 28

GDP Growth Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 28

Advance GDP q/q

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Optimistic
  • Optimistic if above 2.0%
  • Pessimistic if below 1.5%

2017 July 26 Wednesday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Yellen didn’t give much away.

Index fell by 0.58%, seems oversold but could still run lower before reaching resistance.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 28

GDP Growth Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 27

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if above 0.4%
  • Pessimistic if below 0.1%

2017 July 24 Monday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Mixed data.

Index fell by 0.01%.

There is Political Risk with the ongoing Kushner, Russia meetings. Still unresolved.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 26

Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 25

CB Consumer Confidence

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS

2017 July 20 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Mixed data.

Index fell by 0.55%. Oversold in my opinion although Political Risk is high.

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 26

Interest Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 24

Existing Home Sales

  • Current Sentiment expected to be AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Optimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS
  • Pessimistic if AWAITING CONSENSUS

2017 July 11 Tuesday

Current Sentiment

Pessimistic. A poor reading on the JOLTs report and a significant miss on expectations.

Index fell by 0.38%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 12

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic if Hawkish
  • Pessimistic if Dovish

2017 July 7 Friday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. A mix of data.

Index increased 0.03%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 14

Inflation Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 11

JOLTS Job Openings

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 6.00
  • Pessimistic below 5.80

2017 July 6 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. A mix of data.

Index fell 0.40%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 7

Unemployment Rate

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 7

Non-Farm Employment Change

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 180K
  • Pessimistic below 155K

Unemployment Rate

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic below 4.3%
  • Pessimistic above 4.4%

2017 July 5 Wednesday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. FOMC report was neither hawkish or dovish.

Index barely moved, gained 0.01%

General Sentiment

PessimisticDollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 6 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 6

Balance of Trade

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above -45B
  • Pessimistic below -47B

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 56.9
  • Pessimistic below 56.1

 2017 Jul 3 Monday

Current Sentiment

Optimistic as ISM Manufacturing PMI above expectations.

Index today gained 0.62%

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 6 Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 5

FOMC Meeting Minutes

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic when Hawkish
  • Pessimistic when Dovish

2017 June 29 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. Core PCE was as expected but very low at 0.1%. Previous month revised down to 0.1%. Indifferent.

Short Term Dollar Index remains Bearish but appears to have bottomed out and recorded a small increase of 0.07%.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 2 GDP Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

July 3

ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 55.9
  • Pessimistic below 54.6

2017 June 29 Thursday

Current Sentiment

Indifferent. GDP came in better than expected and Unemployment was about right.

Short Term Dollar Index remains Bearish and recorded new lows with a 0.5% drop.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

July 2 GDP Balance of Trade

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 30

Core PCE Price Index m/m

  • Current Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic above 0.1%
  • Pessimistic below 0.1%

 2017 June 28 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

Pessimistic as the Pending Home Sales missed expectations coming in with -0.8%. The Short Term Dollar Index remains Bearish and recorded new lows.

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate.

  • Fundamental Performance expected to remain Improving.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30

Final GDP q/q

  • Sentiment expected to remain Pessimistic
  • Optimistic above 2.1%
  • Pessimistic below 1.0%

Unemployment Claims

  • Sentiment expected to be Indifferent
  • Optimistic below 230K
  • Pessimistic above 250K

 2017 June 27 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

Pessimistic

General Sentiment

Dollar Index DXY has been Long Term bearish since December 2016 and Short Term bearish since March 2017. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 28 Wednesday 15:00 Pending Home Sales m/m

Today’s Sentiment

Optimistic above 1.5%

Pessimistic below 0.0%


2017 June 26 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

Core Durable Goods Orders have been a disappointment, missing expectations and coming in with a Pessimistic result however the Dollar Index is slightly up. Indifferent

General Sentiment

Dollar Index has been Long Term bearish since March and Short Term bearish since May. Pessimistic.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 27 Tuesday 18:00 Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

General Sentiment

Optimistic when Hawkish

Pessimistic when Dovish


 2017 June 23 Friday

Today’s Sentiment

The New Home Sales were better than expected but not enough to lift the indifferent mood.

The DXY is down 0.24%.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 26 Monday 13:30 Core Durable Goods Orders

General Sentiment

Optimistic above 1.0

Pessimistic below 0.5


2017 June 22 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

The unemployment claims were mostly as expected so the general sentiment of indifference prevails.

The DXY is flat on the day.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 23 Friday 15:00 New Home Sales

General Sentiment Optimistic above 620K

General Sentiment Pessimistic below 570K


2017 June 21 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar is optimistic today with a good number on the Existing Home Sales release. Not enough to be considered overly optimistic but better than expected none the less.

The DXY is down on the day by -0.20% coming off a technical level rather than anything substantial.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 22 Thursday 13:30 is the Unemployment Claims

General Sentiment Optimistic below 235K

General Sentiment Pessimistic above 250K


2017 June 20 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar is optimistic today with a 0.25% increase on the DXY index. The Fed speakers generated little interest but traders are continuing to buy dollar.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Fundamental Evaluation Time [FUET] and Expectations

June 29 Thursday 13:30 GDP Growth Rate

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 21 Wednesday 15:00 is the Existing Home Sales release.

Optimistic above 5.65M

Pessimistic below 5.50M


2017 June 19 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar is optimistic today with a 0.41% increase on the DXY index.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 20 Tuesday there are three FOMC members speaking. No reason for anything but Hawish however attention will be paid to Evans who is Dovish and Kaplan who is other.

Optimistic when Hawkish

Pessimistic when Dovish


2017 June 15 Thursday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar index is optmistic today and the S&P500 is too.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 15 Friday 13:30 for the Building Permits which is forecasted to maintain the bullish momentum.

Optimistic above 1.25

Pessimistic below 1.21


 2017 June 7 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar index is indifferent with Dollar index showing a small increase on the day’s open. The S&P 500 was down on the day.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent with a June price hike completely priced in.

Sentiment Evaluation Time [SEET] and Expectations

June 13 Tuesday 13:30 for the PPI m/m which is forecasted to fall to one of the lowest levels for a year.

Optimistic above 0.3

Pessimistic below 0.2


 2017 June 6 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

DXY pushing lower and S&P 500 coming off the highs, a pessimistic day for the dollar.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is indifferent with a June price hike completely priced in.

Sentiment Outlook

No upcoming changes expected to the fundamentals and nothing of note to be released this week that could cause an upset. Dollar looks to remain indifferent for the week.


2017 June 5 Monday

Today’s Sentiment

A flat day for the dollar with data coming out as expected or worse.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is neutral with a June price hike completely priced in.

Sentiment Outlook

No upcoming changes expected to the fundamentals and nothing of note to be released this week that could cause an upset. Dollar looks to remain neutral for the week.


2017 May 24 Wednesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar index lost almost all of the value it built up yesterday while the S&P500 achieved new highs. The FOMC minutes were hawkish towards a June hike but it appears that the political uncertainty prevails.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is pessimistic with this being driven by politics.

Sentiment Outlook

Unemployment claims are due out and appear to be an increase over previous month.


2017 May 23 Tuesday

Today’s Sentiment

The dollar has had a reasonable day and climbed 40 points whereas the S&P500 is almost no change.

General Sentiment

For the dollar, sentiment is pessimistic with this being driven by politics.

Sentiment Outlook

The FOMC minutes are due out tomorrow and I am expecting to see further strength going in.


2017 March 6

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Factory Orders m/m 1.2% vs 1.1%

Talking Forex:

  • A familiar quiet trading session on Monday, with the market reining in some of the bullish USD sentiment over the March Fed rate hike which is now all but priced in.
  • Given that this still does not translate into any more than 3 Fed moves this year, UST yields have back into the middle of the 2017 range, so we are back to focusing on the data, with Friday’s jobs report pointing to more consolidation through the week.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Mar 8
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 184K vs 246K

2017 March 5

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • Extended levels are part of the reason, but with the Trump administration ‘stalling’ on their fiscal spending plans, the reflation trade is naturally at risk.
  • Border adjustment tax looks to have been pushed down the pecking order, but interest in his speech tomorrow was focusing on income tax and corporate tax cuts, though this may have been tempered as officials stated that these will not be covered
    in his first budget address.
  • Note we saw limited movement – if any – in US Treasury yields.
  • US Q4 GDP (2nd reading) out tomorrow.
  • Not that this seems to be impacting in any negative way on the commodity currencies, but in the case of AUD and NZD, yield seekers continue to buy dips, and especially so in this current USD ambivalence.

Forexlive:

  • The US dollar finished the day near the lows despite more hawkish talk from Yellen and Fischer. Aside from saying ‘we’re going to hike on March 15,’ they couldn’t have been more explicit.
  • Yet the dollar is down around a half-cent across the board. Why? The market is ‘selling the fact’.
  • There was a rally in the dollar all week on Fed expectations rising and it was time to take profits on Friday afternoon.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Mon Mar 6
  • Factory Orders m/m 1.1% vs 1.3%

2017 February 27 Monday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

  • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.2% vs 0.5%
  • Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.8% vs 1.6%
  • Pending Home Sales m/m -2.8% vs 1.1%

Talking Forex:

  • Extended levels are part of the reason, but with the Trump administration ‘stalling’ on their fiscal spending plans, the reflation trade is naturally at risk.
  • Border adjustment tax looks to have been pushed down the pecking order, but interest in his speech tomorrow was focusing on income tax and corporate tax cuts, though this may have been tempered as officials stated that these will not be covered
    in his first budget address.
  • Note we saw limited movement – if any – in US Treasury yields.
  • US Q4 GDP (2nd reading) out tomorrow.
  • Not that this seems to be impacting in any negative way on the commodity currencies, but in the case of AUD and NZD, yield seekers continue to buy dips, and especially so in this current USD ambivalence.

Forexlive:

  • If you would have expected the US dollar to hit a speedbump on weak durable goods and Trump slowing down the timeline for a tax plan, you would have been right; at least for awhile.
  • But if you had predicted the US dollar would later dismiss all those concerns and rally to some of the best levels of the day, you would be sage.
  • That’s what happened Monday.
  • USD/JPY tested the Asian low of 111.93 on the series of disappointing headlines but a wave of bids materialized there to take the pair up to 112.82 in US afternoon trading.
  • The one thing the market liked was Trump talking major infrastructure spending.
  • That flies in the face of reports last week that he might delay infrastructure until 2018.
  • EUR/USD rose as high as 1.0630 in US afternoon trading only to give up nearly all the daily gains in a drop to 1.0580.
  • A big reason for the dollar bid was a rise in Treasury yields. Gundlach talked about a bond rally Friday but it didn’t come today. The idea is that Trump will disappoint but with the President instead seeming to pivot his speech toward Obamacare and the military, it doesn’t look like it will be the headline risk that was touted.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 28
  • Prelim GDP q/q 2.1% vs 1.9%
  • Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.1% vs 2.1%

2017 February 23 Thursday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • New Home Sales 555K vs 575K

Talking Forex:

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Mon Feb 27
  • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% vs 0.5%
  • Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.6% vs -0.5%
    Pending Home Sales m/m 1.1% vs 1.6%

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2017 February 23 Thursday

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Claims 244K vs 242K
  • Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M vs 3.4M

Talking Forex:

  • After an underwhelming Fed minutes last night, the USD was looking a little shaky this morning, with perhaps some hopes of Treasury Sec Mnuchin offering a little more insight on policy intentions.
  • He stated that the Border Adjustment Tax would be considered and saw 3.0% growth as achievable, but deflected questioning on currency manipulation.
  • This further disheartened USD bulls, but with the Fed rate profile for 2017 still fluctuating between 2 and 3 hikes, few expect a major breakout in the greenback either way, but we could 2-10yr yields move back towards the lower end of the recent range, especially as we move into March next week.
  • The run-up to the Fed meeting over the 14/15th will likely add to further USD
    repositioning.

Forexlive:

  • The market wants the goodies. The USD rally in the election aftermath was predicated on a long slate of promises around regulation, taxes and infrastructure spending.
  • What’s becoming increasingly clear is how tough it will be to deliver, even with full Republican control.
  • The US dollar slump came as the market connected the dots on a series of stories playing down hopes for 2017 growth, extending timelines for stimulus and edging towards partisan politics.
  • USD/JPY traded in a narrowing wedge around 113.20 in Asia and early Europe then finally broke to the downside on Mnuchin’s early comments. It continued down to 112.60 where it’s flatlined.
  • USD/CAD erased yesterday’s pop from poor Canadian retail sales. The pair sank on the rally in oil and general USD softness. It was a steady move down to 1.3085 from 1.3060.
  • EUR/USD finished up 20 pips at 1.0580 after climbing as high as 1.0595. The 1.06 level is now acting as resistance as the ebb and flow of European and US politics drives the see-saw.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Fri Feb 24
  • New Home Sales 575K vs 536K

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2017 February 22 Wednesday

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes

Talking Forex:

  • Focus turns to Fed minutes; will Yellen match the hawkish tones from last week’s testimony?
  • Later on this evening, we may see some further pressure on the EUR/USD rate as the USD perspective is back on focus as traders turn to the Fed minutes. Specifically, the market will be looking for some asymmetry with the recent Yellen testimony, where the Fed chair’s tone was a little more hawkish than the Fed statement 3 weeks ago.
  • USD/JPY will be the focal point as the BoJ maintain their accommodative stance, and are happy to advocate this at every opportunity. The dip in UST yields pulled the USD rate below 113.00, but we ran into buyers here to settle back in the mid 113.00’s into the London close.

Forexlive:

  • The FOMC Minutes offered some hints that a rate hike is coming ‘fairly soon’ but that wasn’t enough for the market and the US dollar sold off in the aftermath of the report.
  • USD/JPY dropped to 113.00 from 113.60 after the release to erase what had been a slow rise throughout New York trade.
  • EUR/USD is set to finish at the highs of the day near 1.0570 after falling below 1.05 earlier to the worst levels since Jan 11. The euro was also boosted by Bayrou’s support of Macron as the French Presidential election looms large.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Thu Feb 23
  • Unemployment Claims 242K vs 239K
  • Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M vs 9.5M

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2017 February 19 Tuesday

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • USD softness confounds after hawkish Fed and strong US data, but
    nervousness over Trump policy/disposition detracts.
  • Next week starts off on a quiet note, with the US observing the President’s day holiday on Monday.
  • We will also have the usual mix of Fed speakers, but despite this and the above data releases, we expect investor nervousness over Trump policy will continue to dictate sentiment away from the fundamental backdrop.
  • The past week has been clear evidence of this, with Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony alluding to a series of rate hikes through 2017, and putting March firmly on the table for the first move.
  • Adding to this has been some US strong data backing up the hawkish tone at the Fed, but USD buying was swiftly reversed on each occasion, with USD/JPY losses leading the way.
  • Reports of selling out of China alongside profit taking in equities hitting UST yields were cited as key drivers of the USD pull-back, but another uncomfortable press conference by president Trump highlights the uncertainty permeating through the market – and with Wall Street still pushing for new record highs.
  • Thursday’s North American session produced the first wobble, but the Dow once again managed to shake off the early jitters to record another all-time high.
  • EUR/USD based out ahead of 1.0500 in the early part of the week, and despite holding off 1.0700, finds support above 1.0600 which is fast developing as a near term value point.

Forexlive:

  • The US trading session was largely void of data. Yes there was US leading index It rose by 0.6% vs 0.5% est, but I cannot remember the last time that report mattered.
  • Pres. Trump spoke in SC at the Boeing plant there. He kept to the script. Talked about jobs and jobs and ended the campaign-esque rally with “God bless Amercia and God bless Boeing”.
  • Poor Lockhead. No love. No blessing.
  • What was clear was that after yesterday’s press conference diabolical, “Teflon Donald” bounced back.
  • The workers in the airport hangar were raucous, and you could see the bounce in Trump’s step.
  • He raced up the stairs of the new 787 to tour the plane. He may have even put an order in for a new one at the end of his term(s) (just kidding).
  • For the USD today, the dollar rose against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY. This was despite declines in yields.

Bloomberg:

  • Dollar Bulls Seek Fed Guidance While Riding Wave of Confusion
  • After a confusing week for dollar bulls, a closer look at some of the technical underpinnings of the greenback paints an even more mystifying outlook for the Trump reflation trade.
  • Popular analysis such as the Elliott Wave theory, which seeks to predict moves by dividing past trends into five sections, suggests the rally is sustainable in the short-term. Further out, the same measures raise questions.
  • According to the theory, created by Ralph Elliott in the 1930s, the daily charts show completion of wave 1 at 111.60 yen entering wave 2, a corrective wave which points to potential gains up to 115.96 before resuming wave 3, which will reinforce the dollar’s downtrend from mid-December.
  • While that may not convince non-believers in technical analysis, it’s no more confusing than the dollar’s reaction last week.
  • The greenback was little changed even after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s more hawkish tone bumped up bets on a March interest-rate hike, and a steeper-than-forecast increase in U.S. consumer prices signaled inflation in the world’s largest economy is right where the central bank wants it.
  • “As confidence in the dollar weakens with more articles and headlines like those in recent days and weeks, a tipping-point is on the horizon at which investors collectively realize they are at significant risk of being on the wrong side of a potentially large move,” Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of A.G. Bisset Associates, said in a recent note.
  • Investors counting on a continuation of the rally in U.S. equities and the dollar since Donald Trump’s presidential election now look toward Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s Feb. 1 policy meeting for a further catalyst while they wait for the administration to provide more details of its promised growth agenda.
  • Even with the optimism that has sent stocks to record highs, the dollar soaring and bond prices lower, expectations for those goals being met are more guarded.
  • Long-term charts suggest the greenback has a lot of room to fall. Mean reversion on 5-year charts show the dollar could fall toward 103.63 yen, its average closing price during that period after having held standard deviation resistance of 117.41.
  • When all is said and done, the Trump reflation trade lives on, but it just may be on life support.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Feb 22
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes

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February 14 2017 Tuesday

Recent Events are Strong

Economic Calendar:

  • PPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.3% 0.3%
  • Core PPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.2%
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

Talking Forex:

  • Yellen warns against falling behind the curve
  • All eyes were on Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony statement whereby she stated that a hike is likely appropriate at one of its upcoming meetings, with the Chair also warning against waiting too long to remove accommodation.
  • This was met with a hawkish response with USD-index surging through 101.00 to hit a 3-week high, alongside a modest rise in yields.
  • USD/JPY saw a modest move above 114.00 with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the JanFeb drop at 114.27 a potential near-term resistance level ahead of 115.00.

Forexlive:

  • Yellen delivered on the volatility front.
  • She was constructive on rate hikes this year without giving anything away on the timing.
  • That was more than enough to send the US dollar 75-100 pips higher across the board.
  • USD/JPY was chopping in a tight range near 113.40 before the testimony hit at 10 am ET.
  • The move wasn’t a straight line but over an hour the pair rose a full cent. It finally ran into offers right at 114.50, which was the high of the day. It’s scaled back 25 pips late.

Bloomberg:

  • Yellen Sees More Rate Hikes Ahead If Economy Stays on Course
  • “At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate,”

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Wed Feb 15
  • CPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.3%
  • Core CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%
  • Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.2%
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.1% vs 0.6%
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

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Sunday February 12 2017

Recent Events are

Economic Calendar:

Talking Forex:

  • Markets looking ahead to the Yellen testimony next week
  • EUR trying to break lower, but tough going near 1.0600
  • After what has been a relatively quiet week, we should see activity picking up in the USD pairings, with focus turning to Fed chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress and the Senate over Tuesday and Wednesday. This time last year, both houses were notably critical of the late 2015 rate hike, which was succeeded by the Jan-Feb fallout in Oil prices and the equity markets. We have come some way since then, but in similar fashion, the ‘aggressive’ dot plot has been adjusted down from 4 to 2 rate moves.
  • From a data perspective, US inflation alongside retail sales and industrial/manufacturing production are all due for release midweek, and could be just as instrumental in setting fresh direction for the greenback after this week’s modest gains.
  • The prompt for this week’s rise was largely on the speculative view on reports that president Trump will make an announcement on tax reforms over coming week’s, but with the major US indices showing no signs of pulling back, USD/JPY has turned tail to grapple with resistance levels stretching from 113.90-115.50.
  • EUR/USD though continues to press lower, but moves toward 1.0600 have been hard fought to say the least.

Forexlive:

  • Coming into the day, the focus on was on Abe and Trump.
  • The press conference briefly sent USD/JPY higher on positive sentiment and then Trump made some cryptic comments about currency devaluation and that sent the pair quickly to 112.80 from 113.36.
  • But the decline didn’t last long and the pair recovered to 113.50. Part of that USD strength was about the record high in stocks.
  • EUR/USD bottomed early in the day at 1.0610. That’s the worst since Jan 19. Despite some minor stops, the pair found support there and it recovered to 1.0650.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Tue Feb 14
  • PPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.3%
  • Core PPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%
  • Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Sunday February 5 2017

Recent Events are Weak

Economic Calendar:

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3%
  • Non-Farm Employment Change 227K vs 170K
  • Unemployment Rate 4.8% vs 4.7%

Talking Forex:

  • Average earnings miss adds to recent USD softness, but 2 Fed rate hikes still
    priced in.
  • Politics to dictate next week.
  • The week after US payrolls is usually a quiet affair, with the data schedule much lighter than that seen over the last 5 days. That said, the risk overhang from President Trump and his daily verbiage on trade and immigration allied to that of the looming Brexit negotiations makes for ample reason to expect the volatility to continue.
  • Following on from Friday’s non farm payrolls, where average earning’s missed on
    expectations to provide the overwhelming USD direction, we continue to look to where the market values the USD in terms of what many expect will result in 2 Fed rate hikes rather than the 3.
  • This was the consensus after the Q4 growth stats released in the previous week, but we have seen the mid curve yields on the rise since, and these are now tailing off again to and pulling USD/JPY lower first and foremost.
  • EUR/USD may have come back off the near 1.0850 highs – topping out some 20 ticks or so ahead of this, but despite the overwhelming data differentials – as with the JPY – the greenback is struggling to build on gains against the single unit, and we cannot rule out a further short squeeze towards 1.0900-1.1000.

Forexlive:

  • The headline Non Farm payroll number showed a nice size gain of 227K vs 180K estimate and the greenback went initially higher.
  • Then the realization that the average hourly earnings were light at 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate (YoY was 2.5% vs 2.8% estimate) AND the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, sent the dollar back lower.
  • In the NY afternoon, Fed’s Williams in a Bloomberg interview, reminded traders (in less liquid markets) that the March meeting was still on the table and that the Fed – if it delayed tightening – could be chasing runaway inflation later. That helped to give the dollar a little more of a bid into the close. Once again though, it was not a runaway move.
  • Against the EUR, the EURUSD rose by about 0.20% on the day.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • FOMC Fails to Re-Fire the Dollar Drive; but the Attention is on Trump
  • Forecast for USD Next Week: Neutral
  • After gapping-lower to start the week, the Dollar’s bearish price action continued all the way into Wednesday, at which point a brief amount of support showed-up ahead of the Fed.
  • But this meeting did little to re-fire hopes for any near-term rate hikes as the bank made only slight modifications from their previous statement that was issued in December.
  • But what was perhaps most intriguing wasn’t what was in that statement: It’s what wasn’t there; and that’s acknowledgement of the continued improvement in U.S. data that’s shown-up on the back of hope around ‘Trumponomics’.
  • Deductively, this gives the appearance that the Fed isn’t making any huge plans for fiscal stimulus taking over economic growth anytime soon, nor was there any enhanced-need to look at tighter policy options in the near-term.
  • This led into Non-Farm Payrolls which, like Wednesday’s FOMC event, was rather muted. The headline print was a very positive +227k jobs added to American payrolls; but wage growth was lacking with a print of 2.5% (well-below the expectation for wage growth of 2.7%, annualized) while the unemployment rate increased to 4.8% (versus prior and expectation of 4.7%).
  • But what may be most relevant to U.S. Dollar price action throughout next week will likely be the same factor that’s stolen the world’s attention of recent, and that is President Donald Trump.
  • At this current juncture, it can be difficult to associate President Trump for anything but bearish connotations in the U.S. Dollar.

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Feb 7
  • JOLTS Job Openings 5.56M vs 5.52M

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday February 2 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Claims 246K vs 251K

Talking Forex:

  • Further USD softening, but losses slowing and running into good support
    against EUR and JPY.
  • All eyes on the US non farm payrolls tomorrow, though we will need to see a significant beat on consensus (175k – average earnings +0.3%) in order to breath some fresh life into the greenback.

Forexlive:

  • …us dollar weakness have been the themes of the morning. Gold and oil firmer too.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% vs 0.4%
    Non-Farm Employment Change 170K vs 156K
    Unemployment Rate 4.7% vs 4.7%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 31 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • CB Consumer Confidence 111.8 vs 112.6

Talking Forex:

  • USD softening gathers pace after Trump accusations of calculated devaluation.
  • Month end flow was already shaping up to make Tuesday’s session a lively affair, but with president Trump firing off shots at China, Japan and Germany over currency ‘devaluations’, investor nervousness led to USD’s being offloaded at a rate of knots.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

  • Dollar Drops to Lowest Since November as Trump Rattles Markets
  • The greenback fell to a fresh low for the session, extending losses against all of its G-10 peers as the Bloomberg dollar index dropped to its lowest since mid-November, with the drop accelerating as President Trump claimed other countries devalue their currencies.
  • The decline may have been exacerbated by month-end flows from portfolio rebalancing.
  • The dollar was further undermined by a drop in the Treasury 10-yr yield, which fell to a fresh low for the day near 2.43%.
  • Foreign exchange flows were initially from fast money accounts adding to dollar shorts that have been rebuilt since the weekend, a trader in London said.
  • Selling was later seen from leveraged accounts unwinding stale longs, though not yet going short, another trader said.
  • The dollar slide began earlier in the day after Trump adviser Peter Navarro said the euro was “grossly undervalued.” Those remarks came after the Trump immigration order and the border wall spat with Mexico heightened U.S. businesses uncertainty, bolstering the view that the “Trump reflation trade” in FX seems to be running out of steam, traders have said.
  • The dollar has dropped almost 3% since the start of January after gaining as much as 7.1% post-election.
  • Real money players who were expected to build USD long positions in anticipation of a fiscal boost to the economy are still holding fire, said traders who asked not to be identified because not authorized to speak publicly.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Feb 01, FOMC Statement

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 30 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% vs 0.1%

Talking Forex:

  • Erratic month end flow, but USD softness clear, with perhaps more to come
    over Tuesday.
  • More erratic trade anticipated for Tuesday, and portfolio rebalancing points to more USD selling in the session ahead – notably against the GBP, AUD and NOK.

Forexlive:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Jan 31 CB Consumer Confidence 112.6 vs 113.7

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 27 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Advance GDP q/q 1.9% vs 2.1%
  • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% vs 0.5%

Forexlive:

  • The US GDP for the 4Q came in weaker than expectations at 1.9% vs 2.2% estimates.
  • Personal consumption was up 2.5% QoQ which was as expected.
  • The GDP price index was up 2.1% as per expectations.
  • The US durable goods for December were not all that great either. The headline fell by -0.4% vs an expected gain of 2.5%. The other breakdowns of the data was not as bad. As a result, the markets took the headline fall in stride.
  • Later in the morning the Michigan Sentiment index rose to 98.5 from 98.1. That was good enough for a 13 year high as consumers continue to show confidence in the aftermath of the Trump election.
  • Stocks did pretty well this week with the Dow moving up over 20K. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at record highs during the week as the first week of President Trump was at times tumultuous and at other times a breathe of fresh air from the staid “establishment” Theresa May and the UK suddenly have another country who has to work out bilateral agreements with other countries. It won’t be all that bad.

Talking Forex:

  • It has been a tough week in FX, where traders have been deliberating on whether current levels in the USD represent value buy levels, given the clear rate differentials and the prospects of further widening. This was thrown into question again late Friday as the preliminary Q4 figures produced a softer than expected rate of growth, coming in at 1.9% where consensus was 2.2% and recent data reads prompting some to consider a possible overshoot. Add in the risk of ‘impulsive’ Trump rhetoric, and we have fresh considerations on whether renewing the USD bull trend with vigour is justifiable at this stage.
  • Longer term investors have more to think about. Looking to next week, the focus on the FOMC meeting will be on the accompanying statement, with the earliest calls for the next move is not until Q2 at the earliest.
  • Non farm payrolls at the end of the week should be of greater significance, when
    scrutinised alongside today’s data print.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% vs 0.0%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 25 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Crude Oil Inventories 2.8M vs 1.5M

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  •  USD bulls look to be keeping their powder dry for now, choosing to hold bids at key levels rather than chase the market higher as we saw earlier in the year

Bloomberg:

  • UBS Says Dollar to ‘Roll Over’ Amid Trump Spending, Tax Cuts
  • “At UBS we have a negative U.S. dollar view,” Gordon said in Singapore. “We believe the dollar has actually peaked. We think it rolls over here.” He added: “We hold that view because we see real interest rates going deeper into negative territory.” Negative real rates prevail when inflation is higher than nominal interest rates.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Unemployment Claims 247K vs 234K

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 24 2017

Recent Events are Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • USD Existing Home Sales 5.49M vs 5.54M

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • …we look some way off resuming the bull run perpetuated by UST yields. We look to have found some support in the 5yr above 1.75%, while the 10yr seems to have set a base at above 2.25%, but gaining traction from these levels all depends on how the Trump administration conduct domestic and trade policy measures from hereon out.
  • …gains have been languishing despite another run of healthy US stats in the form of manufacturing PMIs, though existing home sales proved a little disappointing – perhaps as a function of higher US rates.

Bloomberg:

  • The Dollar’s Trump Trade Approaches an Inflection Point
  • The currency has gained since the surprise election victory on speculation that Trump’s economic plans will spur growth and inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and make U.S. Treasuries more attractive to international buyers such as the Japanese. The rally stalled in recent weeks as investors grew impatient for more details.

DailyFX:

Upcoming Events are Neutral

  • Unemployment Claims 247K vs 234K

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 12 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar:

  • Bank Holiday

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX

Upcoming Event

  • CPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.2%
  • Core CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 12 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar:

  • Unemployment Claims 247K vs 266K

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • USD correction continues as Trump presser still fresh in the memory. USD dip
    buyers coming in though.
  • The aftermath of president elect Trump’s press conference continued as UST yields continued lower, but with Fed members underlining rate hike expectations (albeit mixed between 2-3 25bp hikes this year), there is a limit to just how low they (yields) can go. For this reason we see (and expect USD) dip buyers to step in

Bloomberg:

DailyFX

Upcoming Event

  • Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% vs 0.2%
  • Retail Sales m/m 0.5% vs 0.1%

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday January 11 2017

Recent Events

Economic Calendar:

  • Crude Oil Inventories 4.1M vs 0.9M
  • President-Elect Trump Speaks

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX

Upcoming Event

  • Unemployment Claims 266K vs 235K
  • FOMC Member Evans Speaks
  • FOMC Member Harker Speaks

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 9 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% vs 0.3%
  • Non-Farm Employment Change 156K vs 175K
  • Unemployment Rate 4.7% vs 4.7%

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • President elect Trump is set to be inaugurated next week, ahead of which he
    has schedule a media press conference which is set to be ‘unscripted’. On this basis alone, we can expect to see some of the major pairings relinquishing gains, with USD/JPY already running into a wall ahead of 119.00 either side of the near year
  • USD longs cutting back a little ahead of US inauguration and Trump media press conference.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Tue Jan 10 JOLTS Job Openings 5.59M vs 5.53M

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday January 5 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 153K vs 171K
  • Unemployment Claims 235K vs 262K

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

  • Daily FX Wrap: USD finally records a significant reversal – JPY led, but EUR and CHF follow as dark cloud over NFPs.
  • Tuesday’s impulsive return to USD buying has been reversed and some, with USD/JPY leading the way after the return to the mid 118.00’s has been firmly rejected.
  • EUR/USD may have extended down to fresh multi year lows in the mid 1.0300’s this week, but tipping over 1.0600 again shows that extended USD moves require some consolidation.
  • We now await tomorrow’s US payrolls report, but in the non-manufacturing ISM index, we saw the employment component markedly lower to put a dark cloud over Friday’s release. Earning’s growth will be in focus, perhaps more so than the headline number unless we see a marked deviation from consensus.

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

  • NFP Preview – Price Action Setups

Upcoming Event | Neutral

  • Fri Jan 6 Labour Report

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Tuesday January 3 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar: FOMC Meeting Minutes | Neutral

Forexlive: FOMC Minutes: Saw gradual rate hike pace appropriate for now

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg: Fed Officials See Gradual Rate Hikes as Upside Risks Debated | Neutral

DailyFX: FOMC Minutes Show Split on Inflation Outlook as Fiscal Policy Risk Increases

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Thu Jan 5 FOMC ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | Neutral Forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Monday January 2 2017

Recent Events | Neutral

Economic Calendar:

Forexlive:

Talking Forex:

Bloomberg:

DailyFX:

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Tue Jan 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI | Neutral Forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Thursday December 29

Recent Events | Strong

US Jobless Claims Fall Less Than Expected | Neutral

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Tue Jan 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI | No Forecast

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Wednesday December 28

Recent Events | Strong

CB Consumer Confidence 113.7 vs 108.9 | Strong

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% forecast | Neutral

More Information from Forex Factory

|


Sunday December 18

Recent Events | Strong

Fed Raised Rates and indicated three hikes in 2017 | Strong

Housing Starts Fall From 9-Year High | Weak

More Information from Trading Economics

Upcoming Event | Neutral

Existing Home Sales Wed Dec 21

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Wed Dec 22

|


Thursday December 15

Strong Recent Events

Strong Factory Activity Growth At 21-Month High: Markit
Strong Inflation Rate Rises To Fresh 2-Year High
Strong Jobless Claims Fall To 3-Week Low

More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Building Permits Fri Dec 16

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Wed Dec 21

|


Wednesday December 14

Strong Recent Events

Fed Raises Rates

More Information from Trading Economics

Neutral Upcoming Event

Inflation, Unemployment on Thu Dec 15

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Building Permits on on Fri Dec 16.

|


Sunday December 11th

Strong Recent Events

Jobless Claims Decline From 5-Month High To 258K

More Information from Trading Economics

Strong Upcoming Event

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Fri Dec 9

More Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting on Wed Dec 14.

|


Friday December 9th

Hawkish as Jobless Claims Decline From 5-Month High To 258K

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased by 10 thousand to 258 thousand in the week ended December 3rd from the previous week’s unrevised level of 268 thousand and in line with market expectations. It was the 92nd straight week that claims were below 300 thousand, the longest stretch since 1970.

It was the 92nd straight week that claims were below 300 thousand, the longest stretch since 1970.

Information from Trading Economics

Next Significant Event

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Fri Dec 9.

Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

A forecast of 94.3 is higher than previous of 93.8.

Information from Forex Factory

On the Horizon

Monetary policy meeting on Wed Dec 14.

|


Thursday December 8th

Unemployment claims came in at 258K as expected. Neutral day.

Next Significant Event

Federal Funds Rate on Wed Dec 14th

Hawkish going in as a hike is anticipated.

On the Horizon

Inflation on Thu Dec 15th.

|


Wednesday December 7th

No data of significance today.

Next Significant Event

Unemployment Claims on Thursday December 8th.

A forecast of 272K is a higher than previous so dovish going in.

On the Horizon

Consumer sentiment on Friday December 9th.

|


Wednesday November 30th

USD performed well following strong ADP Non-Farm Employment Change of 216K.

Next Significant Event

Unemployment Claims on Dec 1.

A forecast of 252K is flat so neutral going in.

On the Horizon

Labour data on Fri Dec 2nd.

|


Tuesday November 29th

Summary

USD performed well following release of some good data. GDP came in above expectations.

Next Significant Event

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday November 30th.

A forecast of 161K is really good and following on from good data today, strong going in.

On the Horizon

Unemployment Claims on Dec 1.

|


Sunday November 27th

Summary

No fundamental events today.

Next Significant Event

Preliminary GDP on Tuesday November 29th.

A forecast of 3.0 percent so strong going in.

On the Horizon

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday November 30th.

|


Friday November 18th

Fed speakers were all fairly neutral with little talk about monetary policy. Further details in the Fundamental Analysis.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 23rd has the FOMC Meeting minutes release.

In the run up to release the currency is strong as traders anticipate a December rate hike.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 29th is when Preliminary GDP is released for Q3.

|


Thursday November 17th

Today’s inflation data was a neutral release. Further details in the Fundamental Analysis.

Next Significant Event

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers. William Dudley is of most interest as a Dove.

In the run up to release the currency is neutral.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 23rd hsa Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims.

|


Wednesday November 16th

Today’s PPI data was very poor coming in at 0.0% against 0.3% forecast.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data. There is also a speech on the economic outlook  by Janet Yellen.

The data has a forecast of 0.4 percent and has only missed expectation once in the previous five although also only once has it beaten expectations.

In the run up to release the currency is Weak

On the Horizon

Friday November 18th has a collection of Fed speakers.

Tuesday November 15th

The retail sales data was very strong today and well above expectations. The headline figure was 0.8 percent against 0.6 percent expected. The core was at 0.8 percent against 0.5 percent expected.

Next Significant Event

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labour Statistics release the Producer Price Index data.

The data has a forecast of 0.3 percent and has beaten forecasts three out of the last five releases.

In the run up to release the currency is Neutral-going-Strong

On the Horizon

Friday November 17th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the CPI data.

|


Wednesday November 10th

Summary

Dollar has held onto post election gains as investors feel confident now a single party hold the power in white house, senate and house.

The Department of Labor released the unemployment claims which came out lower than expected and this adding to the gains. The dollar has had a bullish couple of days.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Retail Sales data.

The data has no forecast yet but previously they were good. Until a forecast is out the outlook is neutral.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.

On the Horizon

Wednesday November 16th is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the PPI data.

Previously at 0.3 percent this was slightly above expectations.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Tuesday November 9th

Summary

Dollar plummeted in value although quickly recovered on the news that Trump is declared victorious in becoming the new president.

Next Significant Event

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labor released the unemployment claims.

The expectation is that the claims will rise from 265K previously to 267K. Coupled with the Trump win, a weak dollar in the run up to release expected.

A higher than expected result will weaken further.

On the Horizon

Tuesday November 15th is when the Census Bureau release the Core Retail Sales data.

Previously at 0.5% against a 0.4% forecast and this time with a 0.5% expectation this is a neutral outlook.

Once data is out, a higher than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Monday November 7th

Summary

Dollar gained strength on the back of the polls favouring a Clinton win on the Presidential Elections.

Next Significant Event

Tuesday November 8th is the Presidential Elections.

It is not possible to trade going in as too much uncertainty with the result.

If Clinton wins the dollar is expected to be strong.

On the Horizon

Thursday November 10th is when the Department of Labour release the Unemployment Claims data.

Previously expectations were missed on the Employment Change so going into the event there may be some weakness. All depends on the forecast.

Once data is out, a lower than expected release will give strength to the United States Dollar.


Opinions and analysis presented here are my own views. Factual information and statistics were sourced from Wikipedia and Trading Economics.