How to Measure Fundamental Direction

Fundamental Analysis is done to determine the Economic Direction of a currency which can be measured on a scale of:

  • Bullish
  • Indifferent
  • Bearish

Calculating the direction is done by reviewing the high level indicators of the following categories and reporting the average.

  • GDP Growth Rate
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Inflation Rate
  • Interest Rate
  • Balance of Trade
  • Government Debt to GDP

When reviewing the indicators, take note of the direction over the last twelve months and report as either:

  • Improving
  • Flat
  • Worsening

The direction of Inflation Rate is reported three times and Interest Rate is reported twice as these are considered to carry more weight.

The best place to review this data is at Trading Economics. For example, here is the link for United States.