Long Term Analysis Report of the United States

Long Term Direction

The data reflects an indifferent time for the US Dollar that has been marginally boosted by good October data for consumer prices. Further improvements are necessary before any changes are expected to be made to Monetary Policy. The outlook is optimistic on improvements due to the recent lowering of interest rates.Global tensions are keeping any bullish activity on the sidelines so the overall summary is that the long term direction is flat.

Monetary Policy and Interest Rate

The current situation is that the European Central Bank is monitoring the current policy with changes to the interest rate unlikely to be made for the foreseeable future.

As decided at the last Governing Council meeting in September, net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

Economy

GDP Growth Rate

The data for Q3 was as expected and continues the worsening twelve-month trend.

Consumer Prices

Inflation Rate

The data for October was as expected and continues the worsening twelve-month trend.

Labour Market

Unemployment Rate

The data for October was slightly worse than expected but continues the improving twelve-month trend.