Wednesday 12 September 2018
US Economy
Today
Pessimistic sentiment today as the PI missed expectations and reduced short term metrics to worsening conditions.
Upcoming Thursday 13 September
13.30pm – Inflation report release, CPI has optimistic expectations.
US Dollar (USD/JPY)
30 minute chart – Downtrend testing support
4 hour chart – Downtrend on a downswing
1 day chart – Downtrend on an upswing
Strategy
Buy USDJPY at 111.20 with a Stop Loss at 110.20 and Take Profit at 111.70 or close at 13.25 tomorrow.
Tuesday 11 September 2018
US Economy
Today
JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations but no change on metrics. 6.939M vs 6.68M consensus.
Upcoming Wednesday 12 September
12.30pm – Producer Prices Change with a consensus that changes 3 release metric from Improved to Worsened. 3.2% consensus.
US Dollar (USD/JPY)
30 minute chart – Uptrend approaching resistance
4 hour chart – Downtrend approaching resistance
1 day chart – Downtrend approaching resistance
Strategy
Sell at market price with a Stop Loss at 112.20 and Take Profit at 110.70 or close at 12.25pm tomorrow.
2018 September 6 THURSDAY
There are two events of interest today, a speech by Williams and the ADP Employment Change.
Neither are expected to have an impact and thus the plan is to purchase dollars against a weaker currency in preparation for tomorrows more significant events: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.
2017 September 25 Monday
United States Currency Evaluation
Sentiment Focus event: Wednesday – Durable Goods Orders
| Fundamental | Sentiment | ||
| Improve Rate Change | +0.9 | Yesterday | Indifferent |
| Improve Rate Sentiment | Optimistic | Today | Indifferent |
| Tomorrow | Indifferent | ||
| Trade Strategy | |||
Sell from 4hSURE to DSURE. |
|||
Euro Area Currency Evaluation
Sentiment Focus event: Friday – CPI Flash
| Fundamental | Sentiment | ||
| Improve Rate Change | +0.0 | Yesterday | Indifferent |
| Improve Rate Sentiment | Indifferent | Today | Indifferent |
| Tomorrow | Indifferent | ||
| Trade Strategy | |||
Wait |
|||
2017 September 19 Tuesday
Euro Area Currency Evaluation
Buy from DSURE up to DSURE
Sell –
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today: Optimistic
Tomorrow: No data
Upcoming: more reports on Tuesday
United States Currency Evaluation
Buy
Prepare a buy from 4HSURE up to DSURE.
Sell
Sell from WSURE.
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today: Indifferent
Tomorrow: No data
Upcoming: more reports on Wednesday
United States Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Tomorrow is a realignment of Fundamental Focus. No new orders to be entered.
Buy
Prepare a buy from 4HSURE up to DSURE.
Sell
If Unemployment claims are above 305K sell from market price down to DSURE.
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
The FOMC meeting re-aligned strategy on fundamentals. The focus remains on Price but there is also hints that they labour market can be strengthened further.
Tomorrow
The continuing jobless claims result will determine direction. It has jumped recently due to natural disasters. So long as it doesn’t jump higher it will be seen as a positive.
Upcoming
Rest of the week is quiet but will give markets a chance to analyse the FOMC meeting.
2017 September 19 Tuesday
Euro Area Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Buy
If price falls to DSURE.
Sell
–
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
A couple of better than expected reports today.
Tomorrow
–
Upcoming
Consumer confidence out later this week.
United States Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Tomorrow is a realignment of Fundamental Focus. No new orders to be entered.
Buy
–
Sell
–
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
Building Permits were optimistic although Current Account was pessimistic. A mixed day.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting and the all important press conference. Selling into the meeting looks to be a better idea than buying although stay inside the current DSURE range.
Upcoming
Wednesday is FOMC meeting day and the all important press conference.
2017 September 18 Monday
Euro Area Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Buy
If price falls to DSURE.
Sell
–
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
Inflation report, all indicators were as expected. An indifferent day.
Tomorrow
Three indicators, Business Sentiment report is of the most importance. Indifferent outlook on direction but result is expected to be lower than previous.
Upcoming
Consumer confidence out later this week.
United States Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Buy
If price reaches WSURE.
Sell
Sell from next DSURE.
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
Nahb Housing Market Index missed expectations as did other indicators. A pessimistic day.
Tomorrow
Six indicators of interest tomorrow although the focus will be on the housing indicators. Building Permits and Housing Starts which have a 12 month direction change from Improving to Indifferent. The outlook is pessimistic.
Upcoming
Wednesday is FOMC meeting day and the all important press conference.
2017 September 17 Sunday
United States Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Buy
If price reaches WSURE.
Sell
If price reaches WSURE.
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
No reports
Tomorrow
Foreign Bond Investment, Capital Flows, Net Long Term NIC Flows, Nahb Housing Market Index.
Upcoming
Export, Import prices, Current Account, Redbook Index, Building Permits, Housing Starts.
Sentiment Data (once all indicators of the day are done)
Today
No reports
Tomorrow
Money, Trade, Housing.
Upcoming
On Tuesday, Trade, Business and Housing reports.
Fundamental Data (once all indicators of the week are done)
The Euro is improving at a Pearson Index rate of 77.5 which is healthy. This week there are updates to the Economic Area of interest, Pricing although the indicators are of minor significance.
Euro Area Currency Evaluation
Strategy
Buy
If the Inflation Rate m/m goes to Improving trade from the DSURE (Daily Support Resistance Zone) up to the next WSURE (Weekly Support or Resistance) zone.
Sell
If any of the Inflation Rate indicators change from Improving trade from market price down to the next WSURE.
Indicator Data (4 hours interval)
Today
No reports
Tomorrow
Inflation rate data, of the highest importance with this being a focus point for the ECB. Expectations aren’t expected to cause any problems although a slip up on data will weaken the Euro. Inflation m/m is in need of a change from Indifferent to Improving.
Upcoming
On Tuesday, Current Account, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Housing Output.
On Thursday, Customer Confidence.
Sentiment Data (once all indicators of the day are done)
Today
No reports
Tomorrow
Prices data is going to be of high importance. Opportunity to sell Euro if data is disappointing.
Upcoming
On Tuesday, Trade, Business and Housing reports.
On Thursday, Consumer report.
Fundamental Data (once all indicators of the week are done)
The Euro is improving at a Pearson Index rate of 81.4 which is very healthy. This week there are updates to the Economic Area of interest, Pricing. The expectations are for nothing to change from it’s improving position.
2017 September 10 Sunday
United States Currency Evaluation
Fundamental
Classified as Improving, the fundamental’s of the US economy are generally strong. The focus area of the Federal Reserve is Prices and they are classified as Improving. The market has a 27.3% chance of a price hike in the December meeting.
Sentiment
Classified as Worsening, the sentiment is in need of a pickup, this is mostly to do with the threat of North Korea and also Hurricane damage.
Trading
The current situation has provided a chance to buy dollars at a good price especially if the Core CPI can pick up next week. Currently this is classified as Worsening.
2017 September 5 Tuesday
United Kingdom Situation Report
Fundamental
Over the span of previous 12 months, the UK is worsening. The growth of the economy is of greatest concern.
My long term position is searching for opportunities to sell.
Sentiment
The BoE meet in just over a week and I expect concerns around growth to be raised again.
My medium term position is to hold until further changes as indifferent.
Important Economic Indicators
Bearish start, just PMI data early in the week but Growth indicator for Manufacturing later.
My short term position is to look for opportunities to sell.
Euro Area Situation Report
Fundamental
Over the span of previous 12 months, in general the Euro Area is improving. The Central Bank’s ambiguity around Quantitative Easing is all that is holding this back from more strength.
My long term position is searching for opportunities to buy.
Sentiment
The ECB meet this week and I will be listening for information on QE and Inflation, both of which are areas of interest. QE tapering is of most importance.
My medium term position is to hold until further changes as indifferent.
Important Economic Indicators
The important economic indicators for the week 36 are non-existent. Attention is being aid to the GDP and ECB meeting.
My short term position is to hold until further changes as indifferent.
2017 September 4 Monday
United States Situation Report
Fundamental
Over the span of previous 12 months, it is considered that all area’s of the US economy are improving apart from the Balance of Trade which is worsening. This puts the US in the strongest position.
My long term position is searching for opportunities to buy.
Sentiment
Just over 2 weeks until the next Federal Reserve meeting and the focus area is inflation. There has been little pickup on the reports and until CPI moves away from a bearish position I don’t see any chance of a rate hike.
My medium term position is searching for opportunities to sell.
Economic Indicators
The economic indicators for the week 36 are indifferent although data is thin.
My short term position is searching for opportunities to sell.
The USD is expected to be weak on Monday so looking to sell against anything that is stronger.
The sentiment is Bearish while the inflation underperforms, looking to sell against stronger sentiments. No change on this until next week when some inflation reports are out.
2017 August 30 Wednesday
Outlook: There are three reports of interest out tomorrow, Business Outlook Survey for NZD and for the USD, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Pending Home Sales. These are all leading indicators but none have an expectation that favours an order entry.
North American Session: Following reports of a missile from North Korea passing over Japanese airspace I was able to secure some good pips on safe haven trading.
Later this afternoon there is US Consumer Confidence data released. It is expected to be Indifferent but if Bearish then buy Yen and sell Yen if Bullish.
2017 August 25 Friday
European Session: German Ifo Business Climate report was on the border of being Bullish although by metrics was Indifferent. I have placed an order to Buy EURUSD from the lows anyway.
In the US Session, if the Durable Goods Orders are Bullish then I will be placing a buy on USDJPY from the 5 minute lows.
2017 August 24 Thursday
During tomorrow’s European session I will be watching for German Ifo Business Climate report. This is expected to be Indifferent but a Bullish report will warrant going long on the EURUSD from the 30 minute lows.
2017 August 22 Tuesday
North American Session Review and Strategy
Strongest, weakest, any trades taken? What reason to cancel a trade.
Asian Session Preview and Plan
Currencies of Interest COI and what trades to take if data is optimistic or pessimistic or as expected
2017 August 21 Monday
A quiet start to the week, bought some EUR for CAD and it worked out just before the CAD price jumped on the back of Oil geopolitical news.
No data in the asian session although plenty going off in European and North American sessions.
