Author: jeepsontrading

Currencies Trader

Trading Journal

2017 September 25 Monday

United States Currency Evaluation

Sentiment Focus event: Wednesday – Durable Goods Orders

Fundamental Sentiment
Improve Rate Change +0.9 Yesterday Indifferent
Improve Rate Sentiment Optimistic Today Indifferent
Tomorrow Indifferent
Trade Strategy

Sell from 4hSURE to DSURE.

Euro Area Currency Evaluation

Sentiment Focus event: Friday – CPI Flash

Fundamental Sentiment
Improve Rate Change +0.0 Yesterday Indifferent
Improve Rate Sentiment Indifferent Today Indifferent
Tomorrow Indifferent
Trade Strategy

Wait

 

 

2017 September 19 Tuesday

Euro Area Currency Evaluation

Buy from DSURE up to DSURE

Sell –

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today: Optimistic

Tomorrow: No data

Upcoming: more reports on Tuesday

United States Currency Evaluation

Buy

Prepare a buy from 4HSURE up to DSURE.

Sell

Sell from WSURE.

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today: Indifferent

Tomorrow: No data

Upcoming: more reports on Wednesday

 

United States Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Tomorrow is a realignment of Fundamental Focus. No new orders to be entered.

Buy

Prepare a buy from 4HSURE up to DSURE.

Sell

If Unemployment claims are above 305K sell from market price down to DSURE.

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

The FOMC meeting re-aligned strategy on fundamentals. The focus remains on Price but there is also hints that they labour market can be strengthened further.

Tomorrow

The continuing jobless claims result will determine direction. It has jumped recently due to natural disasters. So long as it doesn’t jump higher it will be seen as a positive.

Upcoming

Rest of the week is quiet but will give markets a chance to analyse the FOMC meeting.

2017 September 19 Tuesday

Euro Area Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Buy

If price falls to DSURE.

Sell

–

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

A couple of better than expected reports today.

Tomorrow

–

Upcoming

Consumer confidence out later this week.

United States Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Tomorrow is a realignment of Fundamental Focus. No new orders to be entered.

Buy

–

Sell

–

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

Building Permits were optimistic although Current Account was pessimistic. A mixed day.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting and the all important press conference. Selling into the meeting looks to be a better idea than buying although stay inside the current DSURE range.

Upcoming

Wednesday is FOMC meeting day and the all important press conference.

2017 September 18 Monday

Euro Area Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Buy

If price falls to DSURE.

Sell

–

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

Inflation report, all indicators were as expected. An indifferent day.

Tomorrow

Three indicators, Business Sentiment report is of the most importance. Indifferent outlook on direction but result is expected to be lower than previous.

Upcoming

Consumer confidence out later this week.

 

United States Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Buy

If price reaches WSURE.

Sell

Sell from next DSURE.

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

Nahb Housing Market Index missed expectations as did other indicators. A pessimistic day.

Tomorrow

Six indicators of interest tomorrow although the focus will be on the housing indicators. Building Permits and Housing Starts which have a 12 month direction change from Improving to Indifferent. The outlook is pessimistic.

Upcoming

Wednesday is FOMC meeting day and the all important press conference.

 

2017 September 17 Sunday

United States Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Buy

If price reaches WSURE.

Sell

If price reaches WSURE.

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

No reports

Tomorrow

Foreign Bond Investment, Capital Flows, Net Long Term NIC Flows, Nahb Housing Market Index.

Upcoming

Export, Import prices, Current Account, Redbook Index, Building Permits, Housing Starts.

Sentiment Data (once all indicators of the day are done)

Today

No reports

Tomorrow

Money, Trade, Housing.

Upcoming

On Tuesday, Trade, Business and Housing reports.

Fundamental Data (once all indicators of the week are done)

The Euro is improving at a Pearson Index rate of 77.5 which is healthy. This week there are updates to the Economic Area of interest, Pricing although the indicators are of minor significance.

 

Euro Area Currency Evaluation

Strategy

Buy

If the Inflation Rate m/m goes to Improving trade from the DSURE (Daily Support Resistance Zone) up to the next WSURE (Weekly Support or Resistance) zone.

Sell

If any of the Inflation Rate indicators change from Improving trade from market price down to the next WSURE.

Indicator Data (4 hours interval)

Today

No reports

Tomorrow

Inflation rate data, of the highest importance with this being a focus point for the ECB. Expectations aren’t expected to cause any problems although a slip up on data will weaken the Euro. Inflation m/m is in need of a change from Indifferent to Improving.

Upcoming

On Tuesday, Current Account, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Housing Output.

On Thursday, Customer Confidence.

Sentiment Data (once all indicators of the day are done)

Today

No reports

Tomorrow

Prices data is going to be of high importance. Opportunity to sell Euro if data is  disappointing.

Upcoming

On Tuesday, Trade, Business and Housing reports.

On Thursday, Consumer report.

Fundamental Data (once all indicators of the week are done)

The Euro is improving at a Pearson Index rate of 81.4 which is very healthy. This week there are updates to the Economic Area of interest, Pricing. The expectations are for nothing to change from it’s improving position.

 

2017 September 10 Sunday

United States Currency Evaluation

Fundamental

Classified as Improving, the fundamental’s of the US economy are generally strong. The focus area of the Federal Reserve is Prices and they are classified as Improving. The market has a 27.3% chance of a price hike in the December meeting.

Sentiment

Classified as Worsening, the sentiment is in need of a pickup, this is mostly to do with the threat of North Korea and also Hurricane damage.

fund

Trading

The current situation has provided a chance to buy dollars at a good price especially if the Core CPI can pick up next week. Currently this is classified as Worsening.

 

2017 September 5 Tuesday

United Kingdom Situation Report

Fundamental

Over the span of previous 12 months, the UK is worsening. The growth of the economy is of greatest concern.

My long term position is searching for opportunities to sell.

Sentiment

The BoE meet in just over a week and I expect concerns around growth to be raised again.

My medium term position is to hold until further changes as indifferent.

Important Economic Indicators

Bearish start, just PMI data early in the week but Growth indicator for Manufacturing later.

My short term position is to look for opportunities to sell.

 

Euro Area Situation Report

Fundamental

Over the span of previous 12 months, in general the Euro Area is improving. The Central Bank’s ambiguity around Quantitative Easing is all that is holding this back from more strength.

My long term position is searching for opportunities to buy.

Sentiment

The ECB meet this week and I will be listening for information on QE and Inflation, both of which are areas of interest. QE tapering is of most importance.

My medium term position is to hold until further changes as indifferent.

Important Economic Indicators

The important economic indicators for the week 36 are non-existent. Attention is being aid to the GDP and ECB meeting.

My short term position is to hold until further changes as indifferent.

 

 

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2017 September 4 Monday

United States Situation Report

Fundamental

Over the span of previous 12 months, it is considered that all area’s of the US economy are improving apart from the Balance of Trade which is worsening. This puts the US in the strongest position.

My long term position is searching for opportunities to buy.

Sentiment

Just over 2 weeks until the next Federal Reserve meeting and the focus area is inflation. There has been little pickup on the reports and until CPI moves away from a bearish position I don’t see any chance of a rate hike.

My medium term position is searching for opportunities to sell.

Economic Indicators

The economic indicators for the week 36 are indifferent although data is thin.

My short term position is searching for opportunities to sell.

 

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The USD is expected to be weak on Monday so looking to sell against anything that is stronger.

The sentiment is Bearish while the inflation underperforms, looking to sell against stronger sentiments. No change on this until next week when some inflation reports are out.

 

2017 August 30 Wednesday

Outlook: There are three reports of interest out tomorrow, Business Outlook Survey for NZD and for the USD, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Pending Home Sales. These are all leading indicators but none have an expectation that favours an order entry.

 

North American Session: Following reports of a missile from North Korea passing over Japanese airspace I was able to secure some good pips on safe haven trading.

Later this afternoon there is US Consumer Confidence data released. It is expected to be Indifferent but if Bearish then buy Yen and sell Yen if Bullish.

2017 August 25 Friday

European Session: German Ifo Business Climate report was on the border of being Bullish although by metrics was Indifferent. I have placed an order to Buy EURUSD from the lows anyway.

In the US Session, if the Durable Goods Orders are Bullish then I will be placing a buy on USDJPY from the 5 minute lows.

2017 August 24 Thursday

During tomorrow’s European session I will be watching for German Ifo Business Climate report. This is expected to be Indifferent but a Bullish report will warrant going long on the EURUSD from the 30 minute lows.

2017 August 22 Tuesday

North American Session Review and Strategy

Strongest, weakest, any trades taken? What reason to cancel a trade.

Asian Session Preview and Plan

Currencies of Interest COI and what trades to take if data is optimistic or pessimistic or as expected

2017 August 21 Monday

A quiet start to the week, bought some EUR for CAD and it worked out just before the CAD price jumped on the back of Oil geopolitical news.
No data in the asian session although plenty going off in European and North American sessions.

 

Posted on by jeepsontrading Featured

Trading Handbook

Review and Preparation [REVPREP]

  1.  Fundamental Data
    • Update Indicators that have new data released
    • Make a note of Indicators and its currency that have data out shortly
  2. Sentiment Data
    • Working through the currencies that have had new data out today
      • update the Previous, Next and Horizon.
  3. Summary
    • Review the Summary data and note the currency pairs that are determined suitable for trading, Tradeable Pairs [TRAPS].
  4. Technical Analysis
    • Abort/cancel the trades on MT5 and close the charts for Untradeable Pairs [UNPA]
    • Go through Technical Analysis Process for the TRAP’s
  5. Orders
    • Enter orders into MT5
  6. Record activities in Trading Journal.

Session Preparation [SESPREP]

  • Identify currencies that have a data release in the coming Session(s), Currencies of Interest [COI]
  • Determine if there is a TRAP and what its Risk Profile would be if the data is:
    • better than expected
    • as expected
    • worse than expected
  • Prepare the charts of any potential TRAP’s

Currency Evaluation [CUEV]

  • Using an Economic Calendar, calculate using predetermined metrics what direction the sentiment has swung. Record the direction.
  • If the data is an indicator used to measure the Fundamental Direction then also record it as such.
  • The recorded result could determine a TRAP.
  • Use previously prepared chart to identify suitable placement of entry.
  • Place order on MT5.
Posted on by jeepsontrading

How to Measure Fundamental Direction

Fundamental Analysis is done to determine the Economic Direction of a currency which can be measured on a scale of:

  • Bullish
  • Indifferent
  • Bearish

Calculating the direction is done by reviewing the high level indicators of the following categories and reporting the average.

  • GDP Growth Rate
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Inflation Rate
  • Interest Rate
  • Balance of Trade
  • Government Debt to GDP

When reviewing the indicators, take note of the direction over the last twelve months and report as either:

  • Improving
  • Flat
  • Worsening

The direction of Inflation Rate is reported three times and Interest Rate is reported twice as these are considered to carry more weight.

The best place to review this data is at Trading Economics. For example, here is the link for United States.

 

Posted on by jeepsontrading

How to Do Technical Analysis

Long Term Trend

Review the timeframes beginning with the longest and identify the long term trend. Using rectangles, highlight the trend reversal line’s, on both Fibonacci and Line charts. The trend reversal line should ideally have at least 2 hits if possible. The rectangle height cannot be too large and has a limit of 200 pips.

This rectangle is referred to as the Trend Reversal Zone [TRRZ].

2

1

Short Term Trend

Now reduce the timeframe until you see a defined trend that bounces the Long Term TRRZ’s. Overlay a Fibonacci retracement and identify the fib level that was most recently tested, this is known as the Trend Break Point [TRBP].

Using the TRBP as a guide, highlight the short term TRRZ. The rectangle size should be restricted to a maximum of 100 pips.

3

Micro Term Trend

Now reduce the timeframe again, until you see a defined trend that bounces the Short Term TRRZ’s. Overlay a Fibonacci retracement and identify the fib level that was most recently tested, the TRBP.

Using the TRBP as a guide, highlight the micro term TRRZ. The rectangle size should be restricted to a maximum of 50 pips.

Summary

With the chart now containing the overlays that detail the trends, you are better informed to decide appropriate places to enter the market. It is important to restrict entries to the TRRZ’s.

Posted on by jeepsontrading