There are six indicators that are used to judge the performance of an economy:

  1. GDP Growth Rate
  2. Unemployment Rate
  3. Inflation Rate
  4. Interest Rate
  5. Balance of Trade
  6. Government Debt to GDP

Balance of Trade and Government Debt to GDP are the only two that have worsened over the previous twelve months.

The Federal Reserve are monitoring the labour market and inflation to decide on further rate hikes. Fed fund futures have over 70 percent probability that a hike is happening, however this has dipped from over 75 percent.

Photo by David Everett Strickler on Unsplash

United States Non Farm Payrolls

The trend is rising over a twelve month period, held steady for a six month period and could be considered to have declined over a three month period.

United States Non Farm Payrolls

With a consensus of 180 thousand, nothing changes too much from a trend view.

Technical Analysis

 Chart Trend Direction Trend Break Zone 
 Day Up 111.40
Four Hour  Down 112.70
Thirty Minutes  Up 111.70
  • Low risk entry at  111.85
  • High risk entry at N/A

Fundamental and Geopolitical Analysis

“The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.”

  • Stock market sustained losses in previous week but set to recover

Sentiment Analysis

  • Traders direction mixed but it appears more are opn the sidelines than invested so a rally could be expected.

Order

Buying up the dollar from low risk entry makes sense fundamentally in the run up to Non Farm Payroll release.

TRADE APPROVED


Image credits: Aron Van de Pol

United Kingdom Interest Rate

The interest rates have increased over the last year and further rate hikes are expected.

This meeting is forecast to be a rate hold event however during Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech look for signs of a hike during the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Technical Analysis

Chart Trend Direction

Trend Break Zone

Day Up 142.20
Four Hour Down 145.40
Thirty Minutes Up 142.75
  • Low risk entry at  143.45
  • High risk entry at 142.90

Fundamental and Geopolitical Analysis

The focus of the Bank of England is to maintain 2 percent inflation.

  • Inflation is at 2.4 percent indicating further hikes necessary
  • Political uncertainty over decision to leave EU continues to hinder the pound
  • No events of interest in run up to Interest Rate decision

Sentiment Analysis

  • Bearish sentiment since May met with 1922 Committee on Tuesday
  • News reports the meeting was warm and may have softened the critics

Order

I am satisfied that the analysis indicates it is a suitable time to order.

Image credits: Aron Van de Pol